Bombs continue to fall, and the future of the Islamic Republic is uncertain. One thing is already clear: the Iranian regime is preparing for the next war – against its own citizens.
In recent days, three young people arrested for participating in the January protests have already been executed – a horrifying signal of what may come, write Karen Kramer and Esfandiar Aban in an analysis for Washington Post.
Karen Kramer is the Deputy Director of the Center for Human Rights in Iran, and Esfandiar Aban is the Research Director of the center.
The danger to the Iranian people cannot be overstated, say the two. Faced not only with external conflicts but also with a population that has repeatedly taken to the streets in defiance, the regime is determined to settle scores with internal critics and suppress any internal challenge to its rule.
The regime's willingness to apply violence to its own people has been demonstrated numerous times in the last 47 years. But it has never been more intense than during the nationwide protests in January, when security forces shot thousands of people on the streets in just a few days. Now faced with an existential threat, the regime is furious, armed, and sees enemies everywhere.
Warning signs are unmistakable. Armed Basij members patrol neighborhoods. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has sent messages to citizens, warning them that "a blow even stronger than that of January 8" awaits those who protest.
Hundreds of Arrests
Hundreds of arrests have taken place across the country since the beginning of the current conflict, according to a study by the Center for Human Rights in Iran (CHRI). Among those detained are not only January protesters sought by authorities, but also activists, students, members of religious and ethnic minorities, and ordinary citizens.
Sources in Iran report checkpoints in Tehran, Mashhad, and other cities, where security forces stop individuals, confiscate their phones, and search for "suspicious" content.
The head of the Iranian judiciary system, Gholamhossein Mohseni Ejehi, has made the regime's position explicit: "People who collaborate with the enemy in any way are considered part of the enemy forces and will be treated accordingly."
In practice, the regime defines "collaboration" so broadly that it encompasses any form of dissent - activists, lawyers defending political prisoners, doctors treating injured protesters, members of religious or ethnic minorities, or simply individuals whose private messages or social media posts conflict with the state.
Possible Mass Executions
For many, the outcome is grim and predictable: they will be arrested, likely tortured, and swiftly judged without independent lawyers or procedural guarantees, in special revolutionary courts by carefully selected hardline judges. Many will face charges of espionage or national security, which can carry the death penalty.
In this environment, the risk of mass arbitrary detention is acute. Even more alarming is the prospect of mass executions, especially as those arrested face a high probability of being forced through torture to confess to something they did not do. Hundreds of such confessions were broadcast on state television after the January protests.
Those detained during those disturbances are particularly vulnerable, as demonstrated by the public hanging on March 19 of 19-year-old Saleh Mohammadi, 21-year-old Saeed Davoudi, and Mehdi Ghasemi (age unknown), who faced torture and trials without procedural guarantees.
Of the over 53,000 people arrested, CHRI believes tens of thousands could still be in custody. They are exposed to a serious risk of accelerated prosecution leading to death sentences.
The threat of retaliatory violence extends to the hundreds of political prisoners already behind bars. Their families have received no information about their condition, and the Islamic Republic has a history of deadly reprisals against political prisoners in times of crisis. There is a well-founded concern that those already awaiting death could be executed in secret.
Fears Are Not Without Precedent
Such fears are not without precedent. In the years following the 1979 revolution, the new clerical regime managed to consolidate its power only through violent purges of perceived rivals - monarchists, Kurdish groups, leftists, and even former Islamist allies. Amnesty International estimated that at least 5,447 people were executed; some prominent historians believe the number was much higher.
An Iranian woman, whose husband was imprisoned and executed in 1982, recently told CHRI: "In the years 1982 and 1983, political prisoners were executed in secret, especially in smaller cities. Families had no information about their loved ones. It's something we see again today, families are kept completely ignorant about the fate of prisoners, while government officials threaten to execute opponents."
A second wave of mass killings followed in 1988. After Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini agreed to a ceasefire following the devastating Iran-Iraq war, the regime unleashed a wave of retaliatory killings against political prisoners, executing approximately 4,500 to 5,000, many of whom had already been tried and served sentences. Because the executions were carried out in secret, and the bodies were buried in unmarked graves, the true extent may never be known.
The Islamic Republic Appears Ready to Resume Action
With armed agents roaming the streets, increasing arrests, tens of thousands of people behind bars, an internet shutdown to mask regime actions, and executions already underway, the Islamic Republic appears ready to resume action from where security forces left off in January.
The international community should not allow this. It should demand the release of detainees and political prisoners and make it clear that any further violence against civilians will have serious consequences that cannot be compensated for by concessions elsewhere.
The Iranian people - who had no say in the actions of this regime, who repeatedly risked their lives to demand change, and who still mourn their dead from January - should not be forced to pay this price.