Ludovic Orban, former Prime Minister of Romania, was dismissed by President Nicușor Dan from the position of political advisor after just a month and a half, without any explanation, the reason being unclear.
The decision reveals tensions at the Cotroceni Palace, where the head of state is in the midst of a political storm that has started to jeopardize his public support.
The explanation for the rift between Nicușor Dan and Ludovic Orban, two political allies for over 5 years, the latter contributing decisively from his position as the president of the PNL to the former’s victory in the 2020 Bucharest mayoral race, was the emergence of misunderstandings regarding the relationship between USR and President Dan, in the context of the electoral campaign in the capital.
The alliance between a stubborn independent, who drew public attention in his fight against real estate mafia, and the leader of a party who had the support of the President of Romania at that time, set to become Prime Minister after the December 2020 elections, was pivotal for the political maturation of Nicușor Dan, but also for profiling Ludovic Orban as a great political strategist.
The reason for the split between the two is a "pretext," a source from the Cotroceni Palace told the author of this article.
The Real Bombshell
"...the USR is using the president's image. Ultimately, they will end up annoying Nicușor Dan's supporters by effectively abusing his image," stated Ludovic Orban in an interview on Antena3.
The above statement, announced as the reason for the rift, is extremely mild and, especially, in line with the president's statements made in the lengthy press conference on November 12th.
The public exit of the political advisor from Cotroceni was designed as a strategic action to explain and delve into the main themes touched upon in Nicușor Dan's conference.
The real bombshell launched by Ludovic Orban was the statement about the possibility of amending the Constitution, in the event that the reform of special magistrates' pensions experiences another failure.
"...if these conditions are not accepted, why not try again, maybe even by amending the Constitution, through a revision of it, to impose a single pension calculation system, namely, proportional to the contributions paid by each employee, regardless of their field of activity. Let there be a good equality before the law for all employees," said Ludovic Orban, in reaction to the deadlock in negotiations between the Cotroceni Palace and the magistrates led by judge Lia Savonea.
The statement by the former presidential advisor certainly made waves within the convoluted corridors of power in Romania.
A Calculated Decision
The dismissal of Ludovic Orban appears as a brutal decision taken by the President of Romania to indicate that he dissociates himself from such a strategy, being far from the thought of implementing it.
But no matter how great the personality and autonomy of the former prime minister, it is hard to assume that he publicly came out with such a vision, without having discussed it beforehand with the president or in his presence.
To explain the dynamics and power relationships in society, it must be noted that we are not dealing with a president who does not think through his steps; moreover, we can say that every decision he makes is extremely calculated.
To use such a statement as a reason for separation seems a bit much. (…) Of course, I would have been glad to understand perhaps other reasons that underpinned the decision, because, I repeat, this statement seems trivial to me, a statement that was made, once again, representing the presidential institution in defense of President Nicușor Dan's image...
Ludovic Orban, former presidential advisor, reaction after dismissal by Nicușor Dan
On the other hand, a country's president cannot reach perfect decisions that satisfy everyone without producing a number of reactions and negative effects.
For illustration, I will quote Barack Obama: "The problems that reach the desk of the President of the United States are the most complicated. Those that could not be solved by anyone, throughout the hierarchical, specialized line of the government, from bottom to top."
From this perspective, it can be said that Nicușor Dan sacrificed Ludovic Orban to address two major issues he is facing:
- negotiations with magistrates and, indirectly, with the Constitutional Court;
- relationship with intelligence services;
A Trifle, They Nailed Me
Repeatedly, the former presidential advisor criticized the SRI and SIE, arguing that their involvement in political life represents a serious problem that undermines people's trust in authorities and institutions.
"The SRI should not be directly or indirectly involved in political life, should not be involved in justice, should not be involved in the media, but simply should focus on national security defense," stated Ludovic Orban in mid-October as a presidential advisor.
Such a statement is very likely to have caused communication difficulties and lack of trust in Nicușor Dan's complicated relationship with intelligence services, affected by the failure faced in the face of Russian interference in Romania's political and electoral processes last year.
"Let's look at it this way, in the last ten years, how many diplomats or other categories of personnel have been expelled from Romania for espionage in favor of Russia? Let's compare it with other countries, not just from Western Europe, but from Central and Eastern Europe, and we'll see that there is a difference like night and day. Considering that, in my opinion, the intensity of Russian networks is much higher (n.a. in Romania) than in other countries," Ludovic Orban declared a month ago.
In a press conference held shortly after his dismissal, the former PNL leader stated that he was dismissed for a “trifle”, confirming that the president sought a pretext to remove him.
"The decision comes after a single statement I made on a TV channel regarding the abusive use of the president's image in the electoral campaign for the Capital City Mayor. I do not regret this statement. It seems trivial to me," explained Ludovic Orban.
In the following days, we will see what Nicușor Dan has gained from the first political crisis affecting the team of advisors, and how his former ally will position himself in relation to the President of Romania, now that the relationship between the two has entered a new phase.