George Simion is favored to become the next president of the country. For Romania, a country of nearly 20 million people, it would be a very bad turn of events, writes the American daily New York Times.
Before the first round of the presidential elections in Romania on May 4, it was evident what would happen. This was, after all, practically a rerun of the elections held last November and won by a far-right candidate, Călin Georgescu.
The Constitutional Court, citing Russian interference, annulled those elections and subsequently barred Georgescu from running. But that only cut off one head of the Hydra. The next far-right candidate in line, George Simion, surged ahead – and won the first round even more decisively than his predecessor, garnering 41% of the votes.
What's worse is probably yet to come
In Sunday's round, Romanians have to choose between George Simion and Nicușor Dan, an independent candidate who obtained 21% of the votes in the first round. The race is tighter now, but without an increase in voter turnout, Simion is favored to become the next president of the country. This would give him, who describes himself as a Trumpist, the power to appoint the prime minister, lead foreign policy, and command the armed forces.
For Romania, a country of nearly 20 million people, it would be a very bad turn of events, writes political scientist Vladimir Borțun, lecturer at the University of Oxford, in an opinion article published by the New York Times.
Far from abrupt, the rise of the far-right in Romania has its roots in decades of economic failure: chronic underdevelopment, widespread insecurity, and mass emigration have generated a deep anti-system anger, which Simion and his party Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR) feed on.
Even now, mainstream traditional parties have little to say about the flawed economic model that has brought us to this point. That abandonment has led to the country's disastrous slide towards the far right.
The costs of our economic model are clear. Although Romania records respectable growth figures, it consistently ranks among the weakest results in the European Union in many key social indicators, with 28% of the population at risk of poverty and still 17% living in severe material deprivation. Despite successive increases in the minimum wage over the past decade, the average wage barely exceeds 5 euros per hour, approximately a third of the EU average.
These are the results of over three decades of orthodox free market approach, which has brought mass privatizations of the industry, decreased job market security, and successive cuts to public services - all supported by surprisingly low taxes, standing at 16% for corporations and 10% on all personal incomes.
This low-tax nirvana, which most American conservatives wouldn't even dream of, goes hand in hand with the highest budget deficit in the European Union and a growing pile of debts.
However, most politicians seem unusually uninterested in this situation, and Nicușor Dan is no exception, observes Vladimir Borțun.
The Mayor of Bucharest in 2020, Nicușor Dan has built his political profile around the fight against corruption and detrimental real estate interests. But he emphasizes the need to reduce public spending and has little to say about socio-economic justice. Recently, he stated that he is politically right-wing because he "prioritizes work over laziness." This in a country with the second-highest in-work poverty rate and one of the lowest shares of GDP spent on welfare in the European Union.
A Romania Modeled after Viktor Orban
Given the bland political landscape, it was only a matter of time before anti-system populists capitalized electorally. And how.
Out of the country's 47 electoral constituencies, 36 were won by Simion, evidence of his widespread appeal, with the strongest support among the most affected groups lacking opportunities. Rural areas and over 60% of the diaspora, among the largest in Europe, voted for him.
According to the political scientist, what is missing when the emphasis is placed on the role of Russian interference and unregulated social networks: behind the rise of the far right, as in other places, lies economic insecurity.
This does not mean that far-right populists offer a truly different economic model. On the contrary, Simion has called for cutting social benefits and reducing public sector employees. He and his party have focused most of their economic agenda on satisfying the indigenous business class, especially in the construction and hospitality sectors, while promising tax breaks and subsidies for farmers and small and medium-sized enterprises at the same time.
For the poor Romanians, it's just more promises of tax cuts. Simion even candidly stated that his flagship policy, targeting ordinary people - to build a million affordable houses - was just political marketing.
In these circumstances, the best guide to what awaits Romanians is probably Viktor Orban's Hungary, anticipates the political scientist.
While Orban (even his son-in-law) has overseen the consolidation of the indigenous business class in certain sectors, such as real estate, he has also strengthened foreign corporate interests in other areas, especially in manufacturing.
Similarly, while Simion aims to restore majority state control over natural resources, it is highly likely that multinational dominance will persist in other sectors, about which he says pay too little in taxes.
What's Actually Missing in Romania
This is the unspoken truth ahead of Sunday's elections. The two candidates may have different geopolitical affinities, with Simion aligning more with the Trump administration and Dan with the European Union – placing them on different sides of the issue of military aid to Ukraine. But both share a loyalty to the business class, just in different areas, and do not plan to change the country's fundamental economic framework, asserts the political scientist.
This is a common practice for the far right - despite harnessing popular anger against established elites, it is in itself an elite project for state power. In this process, the ordinary people they claim to represent are left behind, he explains.
The kind of party that could represent these people is still missing in Romania, despite overwhelming support for a job creation program, better-funded public services, poverty reduction measures, and public housing programs. Such a political project, one that can offer an authentic alternative to the current situation, is more necessary than ever in Romania. Because now we are falling into the abyss, concludes the political scientist.
T.D.