This year’s presidential election has a series of particularities that can overturn traditional political calculations. To consider that today’s Romania, connected to the Euro-Atlantic space more than ever in its history, with a democratic experience, better or worse, but certain, of 30 years, can still be compared to Romania of the ’90s and even 2000s, is a mistake.
It is important to understand that Romanians who have left Romania, either permanently while retaining citizenship, or temporarily, show little involvement in local and parliamentary elections, but can vote in the presidential elections from anywhere in the world. The same applies to students, who do not need to return to their place of residence or those who actually live in locations different from those stated in their identification documents.
Furthermore, it is important to note that the presidential elections also involve voters who are not typically interested in politics and often not even in other elections. However, they largely live with the feeling, in fact, the illusion, that the presidential elections are the most important, although, in reality, the exclusive duties of the president, as provided by laws and the Constitution, are much more modest than the expectations placed on him.
I will not tire of pointing out that a president without the parliamentary leverage of a strong party is more of a spectator-commentator on issues that mostly concern people's daily lives. Politics is done with parties and majorities.
Moreover, those with a poorer political education and less interest in politics are more likely to vote for the "big shot."
As the years have passed, the discipline of party electorates has diminished, even in the case of the most powerful formations. The recent example of the local elections in Bucharest is enlightening.
An independent candidate won against candidates from major parties who achieved scores well below their party's usual performance. This means that, especially in large urban areas, people have started to place increasing importance on the candidate themselves rather than party support.
This is a phenomenon that could intensify during the presidential elections because trust in parties is at an all-time low, a huge issue in a democracy, indeed.
Trains without locomotives
Hence, an important aspect of this electoral year is that major parties lack locomotives. With the exception of Elena Lasconi, who, however, needs to bring her party back to relevance, the candidates of the parties, primarily Mr. Ciucă and Mr. Ciolacu, are scoring below their party's usual levels.
Therefore, before managing to break out of the traditional electoral basin, an absolute necessity for a real chance in the final round, they must fully capture their own basin.
And even though it is so, the electoral calendar set after all sorts of permutations means that the score in the first round of the presidential elections will be decisive for the parties' performance in the parliamentary elections the following Sunday. A poor score for a candidate will demobilize, while a very good score will convince even the undecided. An electoral bonus or penalty.
The final in the first round
Another particularity is that, unlike most previous presidential elections, the most difficult to anticipate is the result of the first round, which will play a more significant role than the final round. This is because, for the first time, we no longer have two strong blocs, each with its own high-caliber candidate, making the final outcome unpredictable well before the first round.
Yes, Marcel Ciolacu has a very high chance of reaching the final. Even below the party's usual score, the still disciplined electorate of the PSD is significant. The anti-PSD zone, because the left-right separation does not exist here, is fragmented among candidates with different advantages, leading them to cannibalize each other.
Elena Lasconi is charismatic and closest to authentic anti-PSD sentiment, but her suitability for the position is still highly debatable. Mircea Geoană is a former PSD president, the longest-serving, with a controversial past, but he has the NATO brand and the highest qualifications for the presidential position. Nicolae Ciucă is a partner with the PSD in government and with Marcel Ciolacu in the famous tandem, lacking charisma and rhetoric, but with a more significant party machinery than the other two.
Their battle, with a clear favorite but not guaranteed, seems quite tough. And if Mircea Geoană makes it to the final, the game is over. Therefore, the stakes are very high to prevent this.
Will the votes be stolen without anyone to guard them? It will be a test for Romanian democracy and for all parties represented in the polling stations.
Cancellation, theft, or protest
It should be clear that as the law stands now, with reports signed by each observer and online posting of results from each polling station, theft can only occur with the complicity of everyone against those without representatives. This was also the case in the European and local elections.
In the local elections, we had half a million invalidated ballots, which is immense. In a much simpler election, with a single ballot and a single ballot box, more than 100,000 invalidated ballots nationwide would mean that parties with observers stole from candidates without them.
Of course, there is also nullification as a form of protest. I have mentioned that I resorted to it in the second round of 2019, considering that I could not vote for any of the candidates, equally undesirable for various reasons. However, given the wide range of candidates in the first round, this form of protest is less likely to manifest itself.
All in all, this electoral year is truly atypical, with results that could prove surprising in the context of traditional rules.