Deputy Prime Minister Tanczos Barna stated on Monday evening that any increase in VAT primarily leads to a decrease in consumption, but this market reaction is temporary.
„Every time, any VAT increase generates an immediate reduction in consumption. It is an immediate effect that passes after 2-3 months, and things return to a normal course,” said Tanczos Barna.
According to him, the fiscal effects overlapped with the energy ones. "The problem in Romania today is that the increase in VAT overlapped with the elimination of electricity subsidies. The price of natural gas has increased, the VAT of 21% has been added to electricity, and they overlapped, generating inflation. Inflation immediately, in turn, generates a reduction in consumption," said the Deputy Prime Minister.
The decrease in consumption is certain, but temporary
Tanczos Barna states that it is "a certainty" that the VAT increase reduces consumption, but he believes that the recovery is already visible. He says he warned those who rushed to enjoy the high revenues in August that the following months could look different.
"Because if someone boasts that VAT increased in August, they will have to explain why it decreased in September. I was sure there would be a decrease. October already means much more, so it has returned to a rising trend, somewhere at the level of August," he explained.
The Deputy Prime Minister added that variations from one month to another should not be overestimated: "These differences of 5, 10, 15% in VAT growth-decline can be easily juggled with refunded or non-refunded VAT."
Data from the Ministry of Finance and the level of revenues
According to the Ministry of Finance, VAT revenues in the period July–September reached 35.48 billion lei, out of a total of 94.75 billion lei for the first nine months of 2025. The institution emphasizes that over two-thirds of the additional revenues compared to last year were generated in the quarter when VAT was increased.
The National Agency for Fiscal Administration (ANAF) collected 12,556.82 million lei in August and 12,207.44 million lei in September. The Ministry specifies that August traditionally has lower economic activity, which explains the level of revenues, despite the VAT increase on August 1.