The inevitable has happened for Marcel Ciolacu, no matter how much he tried to avoid the risk of a presidential candidacy. I have no doubt that he would have preferred a joint PSD-PNL candidacy for Nicolae Ciucă in exchange for strengthening his position as a prime minister with unlimited powers, having such a convenient partner at Cotroceni. But PSD could not accept not having its own candidate and supporting the president of another party.
Marcel Ciolacu also tried the idea of being an independent, a social-democratic intellectual at heart, as he said, but after the episode of the independent common candidate in Bucharest, the idea died.
So he had no choice and, somewhat pushed, he entered the one-way corridor. And starting from Monday, August 20, in addition to the presidential battle, PSD will also begin an internal battle - for power, meaning the takeover of the party and, implicitly, the future prime minister.
If Marcel Ciolacu wins the elections, both positions will be immediately vacated, but he will maintain a strong say in terms of the successor. If he loses, he will remain in office for a while, just like Victor Ponta and Viorica Dăncilă. But it will only be a matter of time until he, like all defeated PSD members, feels the deadly knife between his shoulder blades.
He, too, has plunged the blade into the defeated in the past. Devouring them is the ritual through which PSD, like a huge boa constrictor, digests failure and moves on.
Marcel Ciolacu therefore knows best the value of promises that regardless of the election outcome, he will remain the beloved leader of the party.
What are his chances of winning?
It depends on many elements. Some are certain, first and foremost the extent to which Mircea Geoană will manage to organize his campaign, specifically if he will have a strong enough electoral vehicle to ensure campaign logistics. Without it, he has no chance. With it, he has the first chance.
But the most complicated aspect for Marcel Ciolacu will be the game of chance, that is, the black swans that can, and it is quite probable, appear in a country with severely damaged institutions. The asylums of horror, Crevedia, 2 Mai, Pantelimon all seemed to have emerged out of nowhere, but in reality from the major dysfunctions of the Romanian state.
A scandal of pension recalculations is already looming, a direct consequence of how especially PSD raised the expectations of pensioners that the decision from the Pensions Office would pour abundance onto their tables.
If such a black swan strikes close to the elections, the shock will be significant and the main impact will be felt by the candidate for prime minister. That's why, according to political sources, Marcel Colacu is seeking a solution to effectively suspend himself from office near the elections, delegating his duties, most likely, to Deputy Prime Minister Neacșu, under the pretext, of course, that the campaign effort will not allow him to exercise his role as head of the government with maximum efficiency.
Mr. Ciolacu also has personal vulnerabilities, some of which the press has already discussed, while others could be exploited by opponents in direct confrontations or by journalists. For example, what would happen if Mr. Ciolacu were invited to express his vision of Romania's role within NATO or in the regional security context in English?
Will there be debates between candidates? Normally, this would be a silly question. It is absolutely valid, however, after Klaus Iohannis destroyed this democratic exercise as well, creating an extremely toxic new model.
Candidates to contend with
Marcel Ciolacu's risks of missing the second round are low, although the PSD electorate is no longer as disciplined as in the past. Evidence of this is the differences between the scores in local and European elections, both held on the same day. Sociologist Cristian Andrei calculated that 1.16 million PSD and PNL voters opted for something completely different in the European elections than in the local elections.
Unlike other PSD presidential candidates, Marcel Ciolacu is not a powerhouse for the party, so he is entirely dependent on its mobilization. And let's not forget that Mircea Geoană takes a big bite out of his electoral base.
In the second round, the most comfortable opponent would be George Simion or, especially, Diana Șoșoacă. However, the chances of defeating him are minimal.
Against Nicolae Ciucă, Marcel Ciolacu would still be the favorite because such a final would predispose to massive absenteeism, so the party's mobilization would still be key, an area where PSD has the upper hand. However, Nicolae Ciucă has little chance of making it to the final, despite all the efforts of the party.
If Elena Lasconi reaches the second round, it would be complicated for Marcel Ciolacu. The USR candidate is on the offensive and on a remarkable upward trend. Given her ideological versatility, she cannot be attacked with progressivism, and her poor relationship with the former party leadership makes it harder to oppose the classic accusations against USR. Moreover, Elena Lasconi, unlike Nicolae Ciucă, has a real potential to rally the anti-PSD electorate.
Elena Lasconi has already fired the first shot and addressed three delicate questions to Marcel Ciolacu as a warm-up:
- What was he doing at a hunt with a terrorist - Omar Haissam - and if he is friends with other terrorists?
- At what age did he pass the baccalaureate and what studies did he pursue?
- Under what conditions did he obtain the revolutionary certificate, because everyone knows he had no contribution to the 1989 Revolution, just that he got some free commercial spaces in the market in Buzău?
If Mircea Geoană reaches the final, Marcel Ciolacu has already lost.
And there is, of course, an interesting question: how will the governance of this electoral campaign survive, with the presidents of the two parties in a head-to-head battle. This attempt, plus the effects that the first round of the presidential elections will have on the parliamentary score, could completely change the plans for the future governance.