The announcement that PNL will give a „installing” vote to the Luca Niculescu Government has sparked a debate in several areas of society, in party headquarters, among liberals, among politically concerned voters, but also among journalists and commentators.
PSD actually took advantage of the controversy over whether PNL should or should not vote for the new government and started a trolling campaign on social networks to erode the public support for the liberals.
Ilie Bolojan announced that he will sign with Luca Niculescu a "...support agreement... conditioned... in which the designated prime minister commits to maintaining the deficit targets that Romania, through previous governments, has assumed, so that we can access European funds, remain a safe country for investors, correct our budgetary expenses in the coming period, and create conditions for economic recovery and prosperity. This agreement is for a limited period until after the budget law is approved," stated Ilie Bolojan after the party's Political Council meeting where the vote for the new government was decided.
But the above pact has little value beyond being used by PNL as a political weapon against the government in the coming months, after PSD, which will control the executive, of course, will violate it. It has happened every time. The Social Democrats do not keep their promises.
For Ilie Bolojan, the agreement also serves to provide guarantees to his own party, as well as to his supporters, an additional argument that the vote for the new government is a pragmatic one, to break the deadlock.
The question many are asking is whether he will succeed?
The Fate of the Opposition
Being the leader of the Opposition in today's Romania is not an easy task. Following the president of the PNL are Nicușor Dan, PSD, and an important part of the justice system, the one controlled by Lia Savonea.
In theory, Ilie Bolojan stands no chance. We have seen how courts have annulled overnight PNL's decisions, an entire congress, how DIICOT staged the operation "The Horrors of Bihor Asylums" to compromise him, how Nicușor Dan stepped into PNL, designating Adrian Veștea for the position of prime minister, or how obsessed Sorin Grindeanu is with the PNL leader, attacking him with every two words he utters in public.
In this hostile environment, but also with a USR, also hunted by Nicușor Dan, PSD, and Justice, see the case of Dominic Fritz, it will be very difficult for the leaders of PNL and USR to create a reformist political pole.
One event alone can change the fate of the Opposition in Romania, and it depends not on any citizen, official, or political leader in the country, but only on American voters.
If, on November 3, at the midterm elections in the USA, Donald Trump loses control of the House of Representatives, a change in direction in the relationship between the USA and Europe will quickly follow, as well as the rupture of the "friendship" between Trump and Putin, with major consequences for the entire international political spectrum.
A Special Relationship
The same thing happened, but in reverse, two years ago, when in November 2024, Donald Trump won the presidential elections.
Since then, a relatively short period of time has passed, and many people remember how overnight the entire pro-Russian network in Romania became MAGA, a staunch supporter of Donald Trump.
They also remember how Marcel Ciolacu, the prime minister at the time, rushed to reach out to the new leader of the USA and hired an "adventurer" to lobby for Romania at the White House.
Exactly three weeks after Donald Trump won the US elections, and Russia's influence networks overnight turned into MAGA due to the special relationship between Trump and Putin, Călin Georgescu, a former employee of the SIE (Foreign Intelligence Service), recruited by the Kremlin, won the first round of the presidential elections.
Using a mirror-like reasoning, it is expected that in the event that Donald Trump loses political control in the USA, things will change just as rapidly.
There will, however, be a critical period of at least two months, I wrote about it here, but if "we survive," the situation will start to change from the first days of 2027.
The Justice Front
As the leader of the opposition, Ilie Bolojan will be forced to be quite creative and find ways to collaborate in Parliament with non-affiliated elected officials, of which there are quite a few, around 60, as well as with parts of AUR, at a time when internal struggles have begun within the extremist formation.
PNL and USR together have 169 parliamentarians, with the mention that around 15 liberals will vote with PSD, at least in the initial phase of the new governance, after which the situation of the "coup plotters" will become extremely vulnerable, given the anticipated political changes.
Ilie Bolojan and Dominic Fritz need 60-70 votes to destabilize PSD in Parliament and put pressure on the government. It is hard to believe that the executive led by Luca Niculescu will survive beyond March.
Another front that Ilie Bolojan must open is that of Justice. Both in terms of discourse and parliamentary action, he must exert pressure on the group around Judge Lia Savonea if he aims to energize the population and meet people's expectations.
One line of attack is that of self-judgment, which has now brought, through the decision of the Supreme Court, one billion euros from taxpayers' money into the pockets of magistrates who have created a tangle of lawsuits through which they sue the state for salary rights and then judge it themselves.
No Victory Without Risk
Corruption has been and remains one of the most important dissatisfactions of citizens, who see in the political system, institutions, and authorities mechanisms for the rapid enrichment of those in power, of a privileged class protected by Justice.
In politics, there is no victory without risk, but when you have a moral compass, when you think about the common good and believe in the destiny of Romania, it is much easier to take risks, go all the way, do the impossible to keep the light on in the pantry.