A popular coalition, led by students, threatens to overturn the political scene in Serbia. The 6.5 million voters are called to the polls on Sunday, October 25.
The early parliamentary elections come in a tense climate, after nearly two years of anti-corruption protests that have shaken the government and changed the country’s political landscape.
Aleksandar Vučić (photo), the man who has dominated politics in Belgrade for the past 14 years, is trying to return to the position of prime minister, while a student-led movement has evolved into a serious electoral alternative.
However, allegations of irregularities, voter intimidation, and vote manipulation raise questions about the fairness of the election, according to an analysis by The Guardian.
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Here is a brief guide to the main stakes.
What is the context and why do these elections matter?
Two events define these elections.
The first was the collapse of the canopy at Novi Sad station, in November 2024, an accident that resulted in 16 deaths and exposed massive corruption in the government and state institutions, triggering two years of anti-government protests.
The second – the funeral held with hero’s honors for Serbian General Ratko Mladić, nicknamed “The Butcher of Bosnia,” convicted for organizing the most severe massacre in Europe since World War II. Last month, he was buried with military honors in Belgrade.
Amid international outrage, but also a strong nationalist pride among Serbs, President Aleksandar Vučić, increasingly authoritarian and dominant in Serbian politics for 14 years, resigned to lead his party’s list, the Serbian Progressive Party (SNS), in an attempt to become prime minister.
His main opponent is the Students’ List, a coalition formed at the societal level and led by students. It has evolved from a spontaneous protest movement, born after the Novi Sad tragedy, into a serious parliamentary competitor proposing a clear alternative to the traditional parties.
The elections matter because Serbia is a candidate country for EU accession, continuing to maintain a balance between relations with the West, Russia, and China.
In a climate of partisan media, voter intimidation, and irregularities regarding electoral lists, any result could be contested and the country could face new large-scale protests, which would worsen regional instability.
Who are the main actors and parties?
The Serbian Progressive Party (SNS), led by Vučić, relies on control of public funds, favorable media coverage, and strong nationalist support, but its campaign has been overshadowed by allegations of systematic voter manipulation.
The Students’ List rejects party hierarchies and the idea of a single leader, preferring to promote university academics and professionals respected locally. The coalition operates through university networks. Its rapid and humorous campaign has mobilized many voters who previously did not engage in politics.
As a result, Serbia’s traditional opposition parties have largely been marginalized, their combined support dropping from 30% to 10-15%. Some parties have switched sides and joined the Students’ List. Others, like the European Serbia formation, may fail to reach the 3% electoral threshold.
Meanwhile, the right-wing nationalist bloc in Serbia is divided by disagreements and has been further weakened by the unexpected withdrawal from the race of the We Are the People party, following accusations of Russian influence. Some nationalist votes may go to SNS.
What is the likely result and when will we know it?
Opinion polls provide contradictory results and are unreliable.
There are also serious concerns about the fairness of the elections, in the context of allegations of state violence against opposition activists and government manipulation of electoral lists and voting procedures abroad.
In recent months, some polls have placed SNS in the lead, others have indicated an advantage for the Students’ List, and others have predicted a very close race. Therefore, there is a serious risk that the result will be contested, regardless of which side claims the 126-seat majority in the 250-seat parliament.
Analysts from the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) have identified five main possible scenarios after the elections.
SNS could achieve a clear victory, and the Students’ List would enter Parliament as a strong opposition. Another scenario would be a tighter and contested SNS victory, which could trigger street protests and legal actions.
The result could be inconclusive, with neither of the two main coalitions obtaining a majority. In this case, smaller traditional parties, such as the socialists, could become decisive in forming a majority, or elections could be repeated.
The Students’ List could win the majority, but the result might be contested by Vučić and SNS, which could again lead to protests and possible violent repression. In the most favorable scenario for the students, they would obtain a clear mandate, allowing a peaceful transfer of power and setting Serbia on a very different political course.
Polling stations open on Sunday at 7:00 local time and close at 20:00. The first independent and unofficial estimates are expected around 21:00, and the official preliminary results from the electoral commission are expected to be published in the early hours of the morning.
What could be the consequences?
In Serbia, the immediate effects will depend on the extent to which voters consider the result legitimate. A victory by either side, overshadowed by obvious irregularities, or a contested transfer of power could provoke social unrest, violent clashes, and institutional deadlocks.
Even if the Students’ List wins and manages to ensure a peaceful transfer of power, governance will face major obstacles. Péter Magyar discovers this in Hungary, after defeating Viktor Orbán. Reforming a system dominated for 14 years by the centralized control of SNS will not be easy.
Internationally, the elections will have consequences for the European Union. A victory by Vučić, obtained under irregular conditions, would force Brussels to decide whether to maintain diplomacy based on pragmatic negotiations or suspend funds intended for European integration. Conversely, a student victory would require immediate financial aid and a clear path toward accession.
The Trump administration in the United States sees commercial opportunities in Serbia and launched, in mid-2026, a “strategic dialogue” with Belgrade, focused on energy and technology. A government led by SNS would most likely maintain the difficult geopolitical balance Serbia tries to preserve.
In contrast, a student-led administration would offer the opportunity for a much firmer reorientation of this country toward Europe.
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