This dull and completely irrelevant campaign for the country and its cities seems more like the calm before the storm, which will inevitably begin as early as June 10 for the upcoming elections, specifically for maintaining power by PSD and PNL for the next 4 years.
A storm all the more intense as the results will be more worrying in view of the autumn-winter electoral season.
Where can the real danger for the current coalition come from?
The sovereigntist area seems to be in an intensified turmoil, after the merging of local and European elections has put pressure on the major organizational weaknesses and modest cadre reserve of AUR and SOS.
As the European elections are completely overshadowed by the local ones, the discourse with which the two parties hoped to make waves is not heard. It's all about mayors and councilors, whom the sovereigntists don't really have. This is compounded by a few ridiculous episodes, such as the one with the bag of money from Becali's palace.
The United Right Alliance will likely retain most of USR's strongholds, possibly even the Capital City Hall, but polls do not show any significant political breakthrough in terms of the political vote. It is possible that the final line of the results will show that USR made a remarkable mistake by associating with two compromised parties, sprinkled with unsavory figures, including for USR in recent years.
Therefore, the major danger for the two parties seems to be shaping up from a different direction, and the extremely virulent statements of the leaders of both parties indicate that they are aware of it.
The Geoană Earthquake
That Mircea Geoană has a firm intention to run for the presidential elections is an open secret. The signals are clear, and after the NATO summit in Washington, the official announcement will likely follow. Polls show him in the lead, for reasons that have been analyzed on many other occasions.
If they were rigged, and Mr. Geoană had a few percentage points less, the irritation, especially from the PSD leaders but more recently also from Rareș Bogdan of the PNL, when it comes to the candidacy of the current Deputy Secretary General of NATO, is inexplicable.
What they know is that Mr. Geoană does not intend to be, like Nicolae Ciucă, for example, a decorative president. He genuinely seeks presidential power. And everyone knows well that this cannot be solitary.
A president parked at Cotroceni, without political leverage in Parliament, is a useless president. Because strictly in the letter of constitutional prerogatives, the president does not have any significant powers in the Romanian political system. Iliescu, Constantinescu, Băsescu, Iohannis had parties by their side with which they created majorities, with which they governed.
Mircea Geoană does not have that. So, there would remain two options. One would be to try to take over the PSD from Cotroceni, through an intermediary of course. It is possible, but difficult. PSD is a large, inertial party; it is not enough to appoint a leader to control it, and the battle for survival of the current leadership would be fierce.
This does not seem to be Mr. Geoană's plan, at least not according to the statements made on Europa FM, in the Piața Victoriei show on May 16.
"President Macron in 2017 came as an independent and created a civic movement and dynamics. We will see if Romania will be in a similar situation, I believe so. People in our country are also preparing for the future political cycle. (...) I am convinced that there are still important elements from the current parties that want something else. I am convinced that there are extremely many people from the existing parties who understand that they need to move in a different direction.
There is civic, primarily, but also politically unrepresented in current parties, which wants to mobilize. From parties and outside parties, we can create a transversal coalition in society to accompany the new president."
In other words, Mr. Geoană's Macron-inspired plan is to create his own political movement, at least initially transideological, which is expected to attract massive resources from existing parties, which he would implicitly break. And I have no doubt that a new president would have the strength to achieve such a seismic shift.
What qualities this horde for power would have, on what criteria it will be, if it will be, selected, whether it will be a real qualitative evolution or just a rearrangement of the same mess, remains to be seen, and there are not many reasons for great optimism. Personally, I do not believe in transideological solutions. One of the causes of poor-quality politics in Romania is the lack of ideological identity of the majority, as well as of the electorate.
The fact is that a potential victory for Mircea Geoană could trigger a massive shift in tectonic plates that cannot fail to frighten the current establishment. His major problem is that he doesn't really have anyone to oppose him, determined to play the card of "the people's candidate."
The solution of an independent supported by parties has been miserably compromised in Bucharest, and anyway, a candidate with Ciolacu on one side, Ciucă on the other, and possibly Iohannis in the background, as an independent, would not be perceived. And political leaders have small stature and high rejection.