By any minimal political logic, withdrawing support for your own presidential candidate in the middle of the campaign, when their name alongside your logo cannot be removed from the ballot, to go towards a candidate who has abandoned you every time they had the chance, despite your continuous support, is inexplicable.
And so it’s either distilled foolishness, childish panic, or outright villainy.
The argument invoked by the National Bureau of USR is that by detonating Ms. Lasconi, her voters will "move" to Nicușor Dan, who will then reach the second round, preventing the Simion - Ponta final.
As a first observation, the one who excluded the danger of this type of final when suddenly entering the race is exactly Nicușor Dan. At that time, he stated that, with this danger not existing, his candidacy wouldn't bother anyone. Could his erroneous calculation possibly be the cause of the danger he is now using to his advantage?
The projection of a nightmare final is the argument that triggered the strategic vote for Ms. Lasconi in November, when the scenario for the second round was Ciolacu-Simion.
The issue is that votes are not sacks of potatoes to be moved from one trailer to another, and compared to the situation of the strategic vote in November, there are essential differences.
Back then, Ms. Lasconi only benefited from the withdrawal of Ludovic Orban, but his percentages were truly minimal, somewhere around 1%.
Orban was not ousted by his own party in a show of force, he strategically withdrew to strengthen his party for the parliamentary elections the following week. This was, in fact, the sole purpose of his candidacy, much better served by withdrawal than by the candidate's score.
And there was no deep hostility between the electorates of Mr. Orban and Ms. Lasconi, as there is now between the electorate of Ms. Lasconi and that of Nicușor Dan.
Nevertheless, Ludovic Orban still garnered 20 thousand votes, so the transfer was not total. The strategic vote was smooth back then, without pressure or animosity. That's why it worked.
The transfer from EL to ND will be minimal, following the withdrawal of USR support, in a political basin where discipline is minimal.
Those who voted for Lasconi in November solely for strategic reasons or those who are flexible have already moved to ND. No one could keep them tied. Those who remain with Lasconi represent her personal electorate, surpassing the USR score, and most likely will stick with her because she remains on the ballot.
There is a potential for radicalization due to the image of a coup and the victimization of Ms. Lasconi.
Is there anyone among those reading this text who has decided to switch from Lasconi to ND following the USR decision? Is there anyone who got annoyed and decided or reinforced their decision to vote for Lasconi?
I am convinced, even from private discussions with them, that some USR leaders know this. So why did they do it? To avoid responsibility. If Nicușor Dan reaches the final, it will be their merit; if he doesn't, it won't be their fault.
It's somewhat ironic that, except for Dominic Fritz, those who ousted Elena Lasconi have not managed to win or retain even a single block of flats through independent candidacies, and many owe their current mandates to her, as Lasconi rescued them after the European elections, doubling their score.
What's next?
Most likely, a bloodbath between Nicușor supporters and Lasconi supporters, plus all sorts of legislative complications. On one hand, according to the USR statute, it's highly debatable whether the Political Bureau can undo what the USR Congress decided, namely the selection of the candidate.
And if the congress itself chose the candidate, can the National Bureau cut off the candidate's funding? One thing is certain, USR leaders cannot shift the campaign funding from subsidies to Nicușor Dan. However, they can shift donations.
Cutting off funding for Ms. Lasconi's campaign will cause her significant issues not only financially, but also logistically, assuming she manages to secure funds from other sources. The fate of already signed contracts remains to be seen, the situation is unprecedented.
That doesn't necessarily mean that Ms. Lasconi is out of the game. This episode of Miorean betrayal, by the book, and direct victimization can represent electoral fuel, not necessarily for victory, but for a substantial score above the current one. And she seems determined not to give up.
From my information within USR, the leadership's decision was not exactly received with cheers, given that many of those who made it are despised in the branches where they play games no different from those of traditional parties.
It's legendary how a betrayed party president becomes independent, truly anti-system, while two independents have the support of system parties, be it PSD-PNL-UDMR or PMP-FD-USR.
Let's not forget that surveys indicate 45% undecided voters and the current trend favors the anti-system independent, the more harassed, repudiated, and victimized, the better.
I didn't vote for Ms. Lasconi in November for reasons I explained back then, briefly inadequacy, I don't know who I will vote for on May 4, I am among the 45% still undecided. But a politics without principles and honor has brought us to the very bad situation we are in now. And only a politics without principles and honor will not get us out of it.