With the validation of George Simion’s candidacy by the Constitutional Court of Romania, the electoral paradigm is changing, along with the main questions.
„Second round back” is not only a dead slogan, but also buried and mourned, especially on the international stage.
Not only has no official voice from Washington come to Georgescu's defense, except for the exotic Musk, who automatically posts all nonsense, even questioning who CEDO is.
Vice President Vance was concerned about the state of democracy, which is being revitalized as long as the leader of the largest opposition party and dedicated Trump supporter will be on the ballot. Simion himself announced that the validation of his candidacy is a step towards the return to democracy.
Victor Ponta will also be on the ballot, another candidate with his clothes torn off for the Trumpist cause. Both have real chances to reach the second round, even to win. How can this not be democracy and who would waste time mourning over Georgescu?
Especially after a series of recordings from the Internet's memory surfaced, in which Călin Georgescu, in his delirium or incontinence, said absolutely irreverent things about Donald Trump, that he is no longer what he used to be, that not even the bullet in his ear was what it seemed.
Another certainty is that the majority of Călin Georgescu's votes will be divided between George Simion and Victor Ponta, who are expected to attract a significant number of Georgescu's captured PSD supporters who have no interest in Crin Antonescu.
How much each will get largely depends on two key questions in the coming days
1. What will Călin Georgescu do? While his international influence may be waning, there is still a zone of Taliban supporters internally for whom his endorsement will matter. Therefore, the extent of the vote transfer to George Simion will largely depend on Călin Georgescu's endorsement.
The only message he conveyed after being invalidated by the Constitutional Court is that he has completed his mission and everyone should do as they please in the May elections. Simion and Gavrilă invoked him, recounting what Georgescu said and wanted, but he himself has not appeared.
Many attribute this to a strategy, not wanting to burden Simion with his passivity. However, most likely, Mr. Georgescu is a pathological egocentric who does not accept any kind of transfer, offers no support in exchange for an unrealistically promised prime ministership. He sees himself as the only Messiah; anyone else is blasphemy.
He couldn't care less about the "sovereignist" movement, his electorate. Granting support would mean giving up on the second round himself, in other words, capitulating, something he cannot do without a major personal interest. And his interest is solely to avoid prison, an objective for which falling into irrelevance and oblivion does not help him at all.
Imagine what goes through Călin Georgescu's mind when he sees everyone talking only about the May elections, that the second round has been abandoned, and he is left with 3 criminal cases; he needs your warmth, like a fallen vestal, as Anca Alexandrescu put it in a eulogy-like speech.
Realitatea TV is already calling for major demonstrations on Georgescu's day, so evidently, the man is fighting for survival.
The lack of this support could cost Simion a few crucial percentage points for entering the second round. This is probably what Calin Georgescu wants, because once Simion reaches the final, Georgescu will disappear completely, even for his most loyal supporters, and another leader of the isolationists will emerge.
2. What will Anamaria Gavrilă do? Her candidacy will likely be validated. The idea that, as we see it, a quarter of a million signatures could be collected for Ms. Gavrilă in 3 days is a fantasy, but neither BEC nor the Constitutional Court are able to verify the authenticity of the lists.
The understanding was that both Simion and Gavrilă would register, as a safety net, but if they are validated, the lowest-ranked candidate will withdraw. I don't think there can be a discussion about who that might be.
Until the final confirmation date of the candidacies, no later than March 19, candidates can withdraw. On March 20, the candidacies become final.
But if Ms. Gavrilă does not withdraw or does so after the ballots are printed, she will take a few thousand votes from Simion. And with the fierce battle for the second round ahead, every vote counts.
I wouldn't rule out the possibility that Călin Georgescu himself is keeping her there just so Simion misses the second round and he can regain leadership among the isolationists.
There remains the question of whether George Simion will not be eroded by some internal betrayals. For example, Claudiu Târziu is clearly in conflict with George Simion, as shown in his most recent post.
Claudiu Târziu knows that Simion missing the second round paves the way for a power struggle within the party. If Georgescu fights for survival without handcuffs, Simion fights for political survival. And these battles are divergent.