If the hierarchy in the Verifield survey is correct or not remains to be confirmed, but according to INSCOP’s director, Remus Ștefureac, there are five recent surveys confirming the Simion, Ponta, Dan, Antonescu, Lasconi hierarchy.
It might be a surprise only for those who have not understood that Mr. Ponta is a formidable candidate.
It somehow seems paradoxical that on an unprecedented anti-system wave, in the midst of the independents’ mirage, a politician like Victor Ponta, extremely tied to the system since entering politics, former party leader, former prime minister, former presidential candidate, former who knows what, if not current, has real chances not only to reach the final, but also to win the presidential elections.
In fact, it is explainable for at least a few reasons.
Ponta's Cards
Mr. Ponta's biggest advantage is that PSD does not have its own candidate, for the first time after '89, and the party machinery is too weak and demotivated, if not downright depressed, to succeed in imposing the coalition's common candidate on the PSD electorate, to which it does not feel connected at all.
No matter how contested Victor Ponta is within the party. And he is. No matter how many traumatic episodes in PSD's history are linked to him. There are many, for example, the rupture of the USL, the launching of the suspension and then the failure to dismiss Traian Băsescu, the shocking defeat, practically self-defeat in 2014, the resignation from the leadership of PSD on Facebook, Ghiță's infinite power.
No matter how many blows Victor Ponta has dealt to PSD. And there were not few, including by creating his own party. However, Victor Ponta has been a Social Democrat and is a Social Democrat, one quite typical I would say, from all points of view, just as Mircea Geoană never managed to be.
Ponta is one of them, the prodigal son, he is the only Social Democrat on the list at a time when the party is in an unprecedented leadership crisis, hungry for victorious leaders.
Another advantage of Ponta is, paradoxically, what could seem like a disadvantage. He is not strongly associated with Călin Georgescu, thus not even with his passivity, which could matter enormously, especially in the second round, where the winner will be the one who manages to generate lesser fears.
Another advantage of Ponta is, again paradoxically, Iohannis. The choice in 2014 was between Ponta and Iohannis. And as the former president is now extremely disliked, Ponta's option could psychologically be a kind of invalidation of the wrong decision back then.
And, last but not least, Ponta is the most Trump-like among the presidential candidates. I am not referring here to his beliefs, I am not certain that Mr. Ponta has too many farms, but to his style, to his transactional profile, to his lack of scruples and little real interest in democracy.
And for many of the anti-system supporters, this association with Trump, which Mr. Ponta abundantly uses, could be more important than his deeply systemic past.
Moreover, we must admit, Mr. Ponta is more articulate in speech and much more skilled than most of his opponents.
Mysterious houses, strange visits, horrible entourages, primarily with the sulfurous Putinist Vucic, I don't think they have any significant value in the eyes of Mr. Ponta's target electorate.
These, if you will, are the arguments that do not make Mr. Ponta's rise surprising at all.
Ponta's Danger
However, there are just as many arguments why Mr. Ponta could be the most dangerous for Romania's future among the presidential candidates.
And not just because he is a fervent Trumpist who could steer Romania away from the European path for a round of golf with the American president.
Not just because he has an evident inclination towards the East and towards toxic dictators for their countries, such as Vucic. Not just because of the brotherhood with Sebastian Ghiță and others alike.
But because Victor Ponta is, like his current idol, completely unpredictable, transactional, and absolutely opportunistic. Victor Ponta goes exactly where his personal interest dictates. That is why his political line is never predictable.
Now he tears his clothes off for Trump. But four years ago, he hailed Biden's saving victory. He says that Trump's right-wing policies are music to his ears. But he was a left-wing president and prime minister.
He had Serbian citizenship and, although it was not a condition for validating his candidacy to renounce it, he gave it up, implicitly distancing himself from Vucic when his life was getting tougher.
One thing is certain about Mr. Ponta. Once he becomes president, his first concern will be to take over PSD, regardless of what he promised Marcel Ciolacu. And then?
Victor Ponta is much more likely than Marcel Ciolacu to form a PSD majority with AUR, and from there, a bleak future for Romania. It depends on Victor Ponta's and his friends' interests.