Against this tense background, within two days, three member states of the North Atlantic Alliance were visited by Russian drones. Violations of airspace by Kremlin military forces are becoming increasingly frequent, while NATO continues to face a crisis in finding solutions to deter Vladimir Putin’s hostile actions towards Europe.
Two weeks ago, Russian television stations initiated a propaganda campaign entitled „Estonia in 3 days”. In Kremlin-controlled TV debates, the idea of a military attack on Estonia is heavily promoted, particularly the capture of the border city of Narva.
The campaign is not just comprised of slogans and calls to arms, but also includes maps with action plans, attack strategies, and methods for taking control of the city.
The purpose of this military action would be to catch NATO off guard and provoke tensions within the alliance, Russian commentators argue. A lack of military response from Western forces would signify a strategic victory for the Kremlin and reveal a significant weakness in the North Atlantic Alliance.
Drone Attacks
On March 25, following a wave of Russian aerial attacks on Ukraine, a Kremlin drone struck a power plant in Estonia after entering the Baltic country's airspace.
Additionally, drones have penetrated the airspace of Lithuania and Latvia. Remnants of unmanned aerial vehicles have been found in the territories of both countries.
Romania has not been spared from Kremlin's military operations either.
"On Thursday, March 26, the Russian Federation forces carried out a new series of drone attacks on civilian and infrastructure targets in Ukraine, near the riverine border with Romania, in the northern area of Tulcea county," stated the Ministry of National Defense in a press release.
"At 00:44, a drone deflected by Ukrainian anti-aircraft defense entered national airspace for a distance of approximately 4 kilometers. The drone crashed 2 kilometers from the village of Parcheș, outside the inhabited area," added army representatives.
"No material damage or casualties were reported. The area has been secured, with specialized teams from the MoND and SRI set to conduct on-site investigations," further detailed the official statement.
Kremlin's Strategy: It's an Accident
Since the beginning of the war in Ukraine, at least 14 drones have violated Romania's airspace, some of them crashing on the country's territory, according to the publication "Monitorul Apărării și Securității".
Our country's military forces have not reported any actions of destroying any unmanned aerial vehicles belonging to Russia so far.
Within NATO, 33 illegal entries have been recorded, affecting 10 countries.
"Russia's decision, for example, to hit Ukrainian ports just a few kilometers from the flank of the North Atlantic Alliance is highly likely to cause concern - drone by drone. Of course, the Russian Federation is playing what is called plausible deniability: it's an accident," explained Cristian Diaconescu, former national security advisor, in an interview with spotmedia.ro.
"If you want to assume it (you in NATO - ed.) as a threat to the North Atlantic Alliance, then you escalate. We (Russians - ed.), in fact, didn't want to escalate. Hence many other elements. All these response issues, sometimes, of course, Ukraine needs to discuss them, first and foremost, with neighbors," explained Diaconescu the Kremlin's strategy.
A Bankrupt Reasoning
But something has changed, the public campaign in Russia calling for a military attack on Estonia, the increasingly frequent violations of airspace in the Eastern flank states of NATO indicate a slight but steady trend of Putin to escalate the conflict in Ukraine, bringing it more into the North Atlantic Alliance's area.
There are increasingly visible signs that the Russian president is under pressure and sees salvation in a European crisis. He relies on the chaos that ensued after Donald Trump attacked Iran, but also on the American leader's resentment towards NATO states that, in his view, do not help secure the flow of oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz.
Vladimir Putin is convinced, as expressed on several occasions, that European states are weak and do not come together when under pressure. Therefore, the Russian leader sees the escalation of the conflict and its transfer to NATO territory as a possible collapse of military and economic support for Ukraine. As a result, a quick agreement could be reached that sacrifices the independence of the neighboring country.
It's the same type of reasoning that led Putin to the decision to invade Ukraine in February 2022 and that he continues to use, although it has proven to be bankrupt. Abandoning it would mean acknowledging a mistake, with unknown, potentially dangerous consequences for the authority of the Russian president.
A Possible Solution
European states are caught in a vice in two major conflicts that endanger their security and development. A high oil price, caused by the war in Iran, poses a threat to economic stability.
The military conflict in Ukraine is also seen as a huge danger to the peace and security of European citizens, with Russia remaining the main adversary.
Moreover, the poor relationship that major European powers have with Donald Trump only weakens NATO and increases instability.
One of the diplomatic solutions that the EU can use is tougher negotiations with Trump, conditioning the military aid he needs in the Persian Gulf on consistent pressure exerted on Putin by the American president to reach a ceasefire in Ukraine.
The crisis in the Persian Gulf affects Europe as much or even more than it affects the US. Thus, there is a possibility of an agreement between Europeans and Trump, but the window of opportunity for negotiation remains narrow. Events in Iran and Russia are rapidly unfolding, putting increasing pressure on global stability.