The symbolism that Mircea Geoană has chosen to transition from the second position in NATO to the candidacy for the top position in Romania could have significant electoral effects. The high decoration received at the end of the mandate as Deputy Secretary General, Jens Stoltenberg’s laudatory speech sent electoral messages on multiple levels.
NATO is at the top of Romanians' trust in almost all sociological surveys, it is the only fixed point in the need for security, competence, and predictability of a people who, because of their leaders, feel more on their own. The brand transfer to Mircea Geoană is an asset.
The fact that Mircea Geoană leaves praised from NATO, after a period in which he clearly campaigned while still in office and was allowed to do so, suggests to those who always seek external confirmations that he has a blessing from Romania's partners.
Moreover, it is about what Mircea Geoană also felt the need to emphasize in the part of the speech delivered in Romanian - the inspiring model of success. A different kind of success than that of small maneuvers and intrigues, one from the elite.
And this comes just as Romania is discussing the academic and professional imposture of other candidates, and after the current president of Romania embarrassingly missed all the external targets he set for himself.
The response to Marcel Ciolacu's challenge - for Mircea Geoană to say why he is better than me - is somewhat implicit.
Mircea Geoană's Risks
Which does not mean that the match is already won. On the one hand, for practical reasons we have been talking about - the absence, at least for now, of a leading party in the campaign to provide logistical support throughout, including on election day at polling stations.
And if this party appears, the danger of hypocrisy in pretending to still be independent.
On the other hand, the risk that Mr. Geoană may fall, again I would say, into the sin of arrogance and make major mistakes. There is also the catch-all risk. Because you cannot be both European, imbued with democracy and the rule of law, and on the other hand deliver nationalist speeches and advocate for the traditional family and condemn Western threats to Romanian traditions. When you try to be everything to everyone, you risk being nothing to anyone.
And, of course, there is the danger of new revelations or scandals that could directly impact him.
Where Mircea Geoană Can Gain Support From
But at this moment, certainly, Mr. Geoană is a candidate with real chances, with access to the electoral bases of the main candidates.
On the one hand, he can draw from the PSD base. Marcel Ciolacu is not a powerhouse, he is below the party's score, so he still has to convince Social Democrats and PSD supporters to vote for him, who might prefer a former PSD president, but with more style and a consolidated external image.
Additionally, in preparing for the future alliance with PNL, Mr. Ciolacu has informed his party that if he becomes the president of Romania, another party must provide the prime minister. So, some may think, it might be better to stick with the prime minister.
We see that Marcel Ciolacu takes care to systematically attack Mircea Geoană especially on two lines: the relationship with PSD - he didn't want to be the party's candidate, he is estranged from the party, he doesn't talk about the party, etc., and the precarious connection to internal reality after so much NATO. In other words: don't vote for him because he is not one of us.
But the most vulnerable is Nicolae Ciucă's base. In fact, at this moment, the PNL candidate is on the menu for Mr. Geoană, Ms. Lasconi, and Mr. Cristian Diaconescu. They all eat from a potential electorate that they do not inspire, do not convince, and who do not believe in their chances of even making it to the second round.
With the NATO membership and the decoration received, Mircea Geoană takes from Nicolae Ciucă exactly the main electoral argument targeting national security and external recognition.
Moreover, let's not forget that Mr. Geoană was the candidate in the second round of the old PNL in 2009. At that time, his partner was Crin Antonescu, who has now directly attacked Nicolae Ciucă's candidacy.
If Mircea Geoană's percentages increase significantly, it is possible that some organizations, especially from PNL, may prefer to support him, at least informally, to secure a future that Nicolae Ciucă no longer outlines.
And, of course, Mircea Geoană can attract many undecided voters, without consolidated political sympathies, who can be enchanted by the illusion of an independent. An illusion, because a truly independent individual, without a party lever in Parliament and Government, has absolutely no chance of achieving anything. A truly independent president is a completely useless president.