In a normal political situation, suspending a president in the final days of their term is absurd. Why go through this costly and inevitably destabilizing process, with effects that are among the worst on the conditions under which a country that depends monthly on borrowing is lent money?
To force the resignation of a president who only fears losing privileges. In the aforementioned conditions, what good does the resignation of the president in the last months of their term do?
But in today's Romania, fractured, neurotic, thirsty for hating a defiant and shameless president, things are different. Klaus Iohannis' departure eases some of the tension from the ticking bomb heading towards the presidential elections in May.
At first glance, Klaus Iohannis' resignation is a victory for extremists, who have turned Klaus Iohannis' stay at Cotroceni Palace into a symbol of the so-called coup and a direct target of their anger.
Once the procedural conditions for suspension were met on the third attempt, and the unstoppable procedure was triggered, it became suicidal for any party to oppose the suspension. The proof is the unanimous vote from the Joint Standing Bureaus of the Senate and the Chamber of Deputies to convene the plenum.
The Seeds of Defeat in the Momentary Victory
The extremists are on the fences and microphones, claiming victory and doubling down with a motion of no confidence against the Government. And they do it because they must squeeze every last drop of success from this achievement. Because Wednesday marks a new stage in Romania's life, the stage - Bolojan as interim president.
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Mr. Bolojan doesn't need to perform miracles. He needs a few symbolic gestures (which deserve a separate analysis in the coming days) to convey a strong message of change.
It won't be easy, quite the opposite, there are many dangers, starting with the "bodist" and "hubertist" snake-like behavior in the PNL (I will address this separately). But if he succeeds, a part of the emotional bubble created around Călin Georgescu will burst.
Until the promised Messiah on TikTok arrives, Romanians will physically have a different type of president in office at Cotroceni Palace, from whom they could obtain the first evidence that they have been understood.
Just as Ilie Bolojan saved PNL from an absolute electoral disaster in a week, he has 3 months to project a new model and rekindle the spark of hope.
Not for Georgescu's hardcore nucleus, they will remain searching the world map for the port of Bolivia and the monoatomic gold on Mendeleev's "table." But for the people who turned to him out of sheer exasperation.
That it is possible is proven by even the great failure of Monday's boycott, a fizz not because Romanians don't want to put pressure on prices, but because it was political, much like what happened with Dragnea's referendum. It's an initial sign that Georgescu can be defeated by his own delusion.
And if Ilie Bolojan manages to shift the focus, the victory obtained by extremists through Klaus Iohannis' resignation will turn into the loss of a key electoral theme.
The total victory of the extremists, which I believe they were counting on, would have been for the coalition parties to shield President Iohannis, block the suspension, and make this the main electoral theme for a strong campaign relaunch.
It didn't turn out that way, the frustration on the people's television is high, and it is expected that the extremists will double down with all their might on the Government's dismissal, which, unlike the resigning president, is newly formed from elections.
The Spiral of Extremists
You don't have to be a supporter of Marcel Ciolacu, and personally, I am far from that, to understand that the endeavor to overthrow the Government would be absolutely inept for several reasons and strictly in Georgescu's favor.
1. There is no majority government formula without PSD, according to the vote on December 1, no matter how you spin it. Sure, you can refuse to entrust Marcel Ciolacu with the mandate, but if PSD doesn't want to proceed with another proposal, you can't rearrange the board without the extremists.
2. Romania is already in a zone of political instability with canceled elections, an interim president, an electoral period, huge deficits, and increased risks, borrowing at enormous interest rates, nearly 8%. In these conditions, entering into a governmental crisis during an election campaign means setting the suitcase on fire.
The endeavor cannot succeed without USR, which would thus commit an error that cost them dearly after resigning from the Cîțu Government when they allied with AUR to dismiss the Government.
Associating with AUR, SOS, and POT to throw the country into instability before the presidential elections, an instability that feeds the extremists, means being irresponsibly close to madness.
But for USR to take this step towards the political abyss, for overthrowing the Government, further betrayals from the Power's side would be necessary, considering that in the secret votes so far, we've only seen betrayals from POT and SOS. And in the face of a motion, I have no doubt that the buying of individuals from the new ragtag troops entering Parliament will begin.
For the first time since the autumn earthquake, I see a glimmer, no matter how pale.
Klaus Iohannis' departure takes away an important electoral theme from the extremists, reduces the very high social tension, gives a chance to revitalize the image of the presidential institution and implicitly of politics. And we can decently cross the threshold in May. It decisively depends on Ilie Bolojan.