Like any true social democrat, isn’t it?, Mr. Ciolacu goes to the monastery before announcing his presidential candidacy, from which he seems unable to escape, no matter how hard he tries.
He hasn’t chosen a successful recipe. Viorica Dăncilă and Victor Ponta, other true social democrats, were at Putna for Saint Mary’s Day before the presidential elections.
But perhaps Mr. Ciolacu will have more divine support from Văratec, and, honestly speaking, he greatly needs it in this extremely risky endeavor with rather slim chances of success.
Especially since he will announce his candidacy amidst the inflamed background of the Pantelimon scandal, which is hitting the current government with maximum force.
Given that the criminal investigation is ongoing and various events related to it will continue until the elections, at the police station, at the prosecutor's office, and in front of the judges, the memory of the event, otherwise short despite the maximum inflaming, will be refreshed.
Combined with the nursing homes scandal, Crevedia, 2 Mai, and similar issues, Pantelimon is no longer about two people accused of murder, but about a failed state that the people must give a face, a name, and a surname to. As Mr. Iohannis is completely absent and already irrelevant to the public, surely that face belongs to the prime minister.
Nevertheless, the governance is eroding massively, but such black swans cause major damage.
The ideal final with no chance and who are the favorites
Reaching the final should not be a problem for the PSD candidate, whoever that may be, considering the party's disciplined electorate. But it is noteworthy that for the first time, the candidate is below the party's score, making the journey riskier.
In the final, Marcel Ciolacu's only chance would have been a successful union of sovereigntists under one flag and with one candidate. However, fortunately for Romania, this current that has caused so much harm in other European countries has fallen into the hands of caricatures who have turned it into... a caricature.
A common sovereigntist candidate could have had the potential to reach the second round, and Marcel Ciolacu could have hoped to face a perfect adversary to demonize and mobilize pro-European Romania. But separately, neither Diana Șoșoacă nor George Simion have any chance of making it to the final.
The Liberals hope to push Nicolae Ciucă there. I don't think a pilgrimage to Athos could help him. Mr. Ciucă is in fifth place in the polls, with high chances of sixth place and no potential for growth.
A situation exacerbated by a surprisingly poorly thought-out campaign, seemingly aimed at highlighting all the candidate's shortcomings and blurring his strengths. The attempt to humanize him, to make him funny and popular, is doomed to fail as long as the man lacks the necessary charisma.
And the issue of the book is somewhat paradoxical. The "Ciucii" that have spread across the country are annoying, especially since it has become clear that they are funded by public money. Aggressive advertising for a non-existent book is ridiculous.
Moreover, it is extremely eccentric to rely on the impact of a book in a country where public book consumption is very low.
There are two candidates favored by the context of this electoral campaign, and I wouldn't exclude a final between them, especially if another emotionally impactful case emerges.
One of them is Mircea Geoană. He is not free from scandals, whether an accusation of plagiarism, a controversial photo, many have not forgotten his political past, including Vanghelie and the nocturnal visit to Vântu.
But even for the less resilient, compared to the rest of the candidates, Mr. Geoană still has the NATO brand that implies security and professionalism.
The other candidate, of a completely different nature, is Elena Lasconi. I don't believe many are currently betting on Mrs. Lasconi's skills in presidential matters.
However, she emits a positive energy and a political freshness towards which those who desire nothing but naturalness and willingness to engage can turn. They want someone to inspire and mobilize them.
Chances of Governance
It remains to be seen whether two parties and their party leaders in a tough and desperate competition, because the one who doesn't make it to the final will suffer greatly in the following Sunday's parliamentary elections, can maintain a joint governance.
It will be most challenging for the Liberals to convince in their increasingly fierce opposition discourse, while their ministers hold key positions in the government, starting with Finance.
Leaving is not a risk-free option as it will disrupt the stability for which they made a pact with the PSD, generate chaos that will be electorally accounted for, and detach PNL mayors from the benefits of governance.
One thing is certain: we are in an atypical election year, without electoral locomotives, with extremely vulnerable candidates, and in a country so institutionally weakened that any day can bring any new shock, any new black swan.