The heatwave associated with the El Niño phenomenon could potentially cause around 451,000 additional deaths worldwide between June 2026 and February 2027. This is an estimate based on models, not a victim count or a certain prediction. Researchers say the warning gives authorities time to take protective measures.
The calculation belongs to the Climate Impact Lab, a group of researchers, economists, and data specialists, as reported by CNN. The report was published on Wednesday and has not yet undergone independent evaluation by other researchers.
El Niño is a natural phenomenon linked to the warming of waters in the tropical Pacific. It can alter the weather in many regions of the world and raise the global average temperature. The World Meteorological Organization warned at the beginning of September that the current episode is intensifying, increasing the risk of extreme heat, drought, and floods.
What do the 451,000 deaths represent?
Researchers estimated how many deaths could occur in addition to the usual in an average year, as a result of the high temperatures associated with El Niño. For the calculation, they combined seasonal temperature forecasts with data on the relationship between temperature and mortality in over 24,000 regions. They then compared the result with the same months of an average year from the period 1996-2025.
The estimation covers the period from June 2026 to February 2027 and only concerns heat-related deaths. It does not include potential victims of other phenomena favored by El Niño, such as fires, floods, or drought. The authors believe that the estimated toll could increase as the effects of heat may continue beyond February.
According to the report, land temperatures could be 1.2 degrees Celsius above normal in the coming months. The number of days with extreme heat would be 44% higher than in an average year. The effects of El Niño overlap with global warming caused by emissions resulting from the burning of fossil fuels.
Where is the highest risk?
Most of the additional deaths are estimated in countries in Africa, Asia, and Latin America. Nigeria tops the list with around 31,400 deaths. Among the states at high risk are Indonesia, Sudan, India, and Brazil. The United States also ranks in the top 20 countries, with approximately 3,500 estimated deaths.
"It's such a large number that it can be hard to understand what it means. But behind it are parents and children, grandparents and neighbors, people who go to work, take care of their families, and live their lives," says Michael Greenstone, one of the report's authors, as cited by CNN.
The figure of 451,000, however, should be interpreted with caution. Raquel Nunes, a health and environment specialist at the University of Warwick who was not involved in the research, says the estimate "is plausible as a modeling exercise, but should not be seen as a definitive prediction." She believes the report shows how serious the effects of heat can be and how urgent it is for authorities to prepare.
The authors say they have released the results before the study undergoes independent evaluation by other researchers because El Niño is rapidly intensifying. "There is still time for decision-makers and others to take action to prevent these deaths. We felt that our results could not wait for the evaluation to be completed," a representative of the Climate Impact Lab conveyed.
The report recommends early heat warnings, health intervention plans, and access to cool spaces, water, and medical care. "A better emergency response and targeted measures where the risk is highest can save many lives this year," says Tamma Carleton, a co-author of the report.
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