Donald Trump’s fury towards NATO allies who refused to join the war against Iran is having an unexpected effect: it is bringing them closer together and uniting them against Washington.
According to an analysis by Politico, European leaders are already privately discussing what the continent’s security would look like if the US were to withdraw from NATO – a scenario that until recently seemed inconceivable.
NATO, "paralyzed": growing fears in Europe
Behind the scenes, assessments are becoming increasingly harsh. Diplomats and European officials speak of a stagnant and weakened alliance.
A European diplomat bluntly states: "NATO is paralyzed - they can't even organize meetings anymore."
A European Union official goes even further: "It is quite clear that NATO is already falling apart... We cannot wait until the alliance is completely dead."
Fears are fueled by Trump's repeated statements, who has promised to reassess US participation in NATO after the war in Iran and has described the alliance as a "paper tiger."
Europe says "no" to the war in Iran - and remains united
Despite strong American pressure, European leaders have almost unanimously refused to send forces into the conflict.
At an informal meeting in Helsinki, leaders from the UK, Nordic and Baltic countries reached the same conclusion. "We all want the war to end, but we do not see eye to eye with the US," an official said.
The reason is simple: "most Europeans were not consulted beforehand, and the Gulf is not related to NATO."
This position is also reflected in concrete decisions:
- Spain has closed its airspace to American planes
- France has banned the use of airspace for military transports to the Gulf
- The UK and Poland have refused to send troops
A European diplomat quoted by Politico sums up the situation: Trump has "destroyed" the transatlantic relationship and "united" Europe against this war.
"Not Churchill": direct tensions with London
British Prime Minister Keir Starmer has become one of Trump's main targets, who mocked him by saying he is "not Winston Churchill."
Starmer has rejected the attacks and stated that he will act "in the national interest of Great Britain."
At the same time, the British Finance Minister openly expressed frustration: "I am furious that Donald Trump has chosen to start a war in the Middle East - a war without a clear exit plan."
Nevertheless, London is trying to maintain a balance and to keep cooperation with the US, including through diplomatic initiatives for stabilizing the region and resuming trade through the Strait of Hormuz.
Rutte, caught between factions
NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte is trying to avoid escalating tensions, but this strategy irritates some European capitals. He refuses to publicly criticize the US and insists that the alliance is functioning, but there are serious concerns within NATO.
The issue is fundamental: NATO is based on solidarity, and Article 5 - collective defense - loses credibility if it is called into question.
And Trump has done just that, repeatedly.
Europe seeks Plan B: alternative alliances and rearmament
Meanwhile, European states are beginning to build their own security mechanisms.
Among the options:
- Joint Expeditionary Force (JEF), a rapid force led by the UK
- Nordic Defense Cooperation (Nordefco)
- European defense initiatives at the EU level
The European Union has already put forward €150 billion for military investments and is actively considering activating the mutual defense clause.
"We need to take action to ensure that we are prepared," says a European official.
The real stake: Russia and the risk of a weakened alliance
Beyond the conflict with Trump, European leaders are aware that the main threat remains Russia.
Hanno Pevkur, the Defense Minister of Estonia, warns: divisions in the West are exactly what Vladimir Putin wants. "For all allies, at this moment, it is important to build bridges, not to destroy them," Pevkur said.
A historic rupture in the transatlantic alliance
Politico's analysis shows a profound change: for the first time in decades, Europe no longer takes for granted the security guarantees offered by the US.
Instead of bringing allies closer, Trump's pressure is pushing them to prepare for a radical scenario - a Europe that must defend itself alone.