With the rise in global energy prices and a decrease in his popularity, Donald Trump faces tough choices after a month of war against Iran: either he concludes a potentially imperfect agreement and withdraws, or he escalates militarily and risks a prolonged conflict that could dominate his entire term.
Despite intense diplomatic activity, Trump wraps up another week of the joint American-Israeli campaign struggling to control an increasingly broad crisis in the Middle East, while a defiant Iran maintains the blockade on oil and gas shipments in the Gulf and continues rocket and drone attacks throughout the region, writes Reuters.
The central question now, analysts say, is whether Trump is prepared to slow down or intensify what critics have called a "chosen war," one that has triggered the most severe global energy supply shock in history and has extended far beyond the region.
Trump has told advisers that he wants to avoid an "endless war" and find a negotiated way out, urging them to emphasize the four to six-week duration of hostilities he publicly mentioned, said a senior White House official, adding that such a timeline seems "uncertain."
At the same time, Trump has threatened a major military escalation if negotiations fail.
Trump's diplomatic efforts towards Iran, including a 15-point peace proposal transmitted through an indirect channel via Pakistan, seem to indicate an increasingly urgent search for an exit. However, it is not clear if there are currently realistic prospects for fruitful negotiations.
"President Trump has weak options from all perspectives to end the war. Part of the problem lies in the lack of clarity about what a satisfactory outcome would entail," said Jonathan Panikoff, a former Middle East expert for US intelligence services.
A White House official insisted that this campaign against Iran "will end when the supreme commander determines that our objectives have been achieved" and that Trump has set explicit objectives.
Struggling to Control the War Expansion
Apparently trying to keep his options open, Trump is deploying thousands of additional American troops in the region and warning Iran of an intensified attack, possibly including the use of ground troops, if it does not comply with his demands.
Analysts say such a show of force could aim to extract concessions from Tehran but risks drawing the US into a prolonged conflict, and sending troops into Iranian territory would likely provoke dissatisfaction among many American voters.
Another possible scenario, experts say, is for the US to launch a final major airstrike in the "Epic Fury Operation" to further weaken Iran's military capabilities and nuclear sites, after which Trump would declare victory and withdraw, claiming that the war objectives have been achieved.
However, such a statement would sound unsubstantial if the Strait of Hormuz is not completely reopened, something Iran currently refuses to allow. Trump has expressed frustration with European allies' refusal to send warships to secure this maritime route.
Trump, who has repeatedly promised to keep the US out of foreign conflicts, appears to have difficulty in controlling the expanding war he initiated with Israel.
While continuing to issue triumphalist assessments, he has increasingly adjusted his message to calm unsettled financial markets, instructing advisers to emphasize that the war will end soon, according to the White House official who spoke on condition of anonymity.
However, the lack of a clear exit strategy poses risks both for Trump's presidential legacy and his party's chances, as Republicans seek to defend their fragile majorities in Congress in the upcoming mid-term elections in November.
Miscalculation
Trump's biggest miscalculation was the extent of Tehran's response. Iran has used its remaining missiles and drones to strike Israel and Gulf states and largely closed the Strait of Hormuz, through which a fifth of the world's oil passes, causing shockwaves in the global economy.
"The Iranian government's bet is that it can endure more suffering over a longer period than its adversaries - and it may be right," said Jon Alterman from the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.
A White House official said that Trump and his team were "well prepared" for Iran's response in the strait and are confident it will reopen soon.
However, the clearest sign of Trump's growing anxiety about the war came on Monday when he dramatically dropped the threat to destroy Iran's power grid if it did not allow the resumption of shipments through the strait.
In a move widely seen as an attempt to calm markets, he announced a five-day pause in enforcing the threat to allow for diplomacy. On Thursday, he extended this period by another 10 days.
Trump's Popularity Declines
At the same time, internal pressure is mounting. Polls show that the war is deeply unpopular among Americans, and while Trump's MAGA movement has largely supported him, the backing of his political base could weaken if the economic impact, including high fuel prices, persists.
Trump's overall approval rating has dropped to 36%, the lowest level since his return to the White House, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll completed on Monday.
The White House has become increasingly concerned about the political consequences of the war, a former senior official from the Trump administration told Reuters, citing concerns expressed by Republican lawmakers about future elections.
In response, a White House official said that Trump's team had briefed Congress numerous times before and during the war.
Difficult Diplomacy Complicated by Assassinations
However, diplomatic efforts currently do not offer easy solutions. Trump's 15-point plan is similar to what Iran largely rejected in pre-war negotiations and includes elements that are hard to implement.
Demands range from dismantling Iran's nuclear program and limiting its missile arsenal to abandoning proxy groups and effectively ceding control of the strait.
Iran has deemed the US offer unfair and unrealistic - although it has not ruled out further indirect contacts.
Although Trump insisted on Thursday that Iran is "begging" for a deal, the country's leadership does not seem eager to negotiate an end to the conflict, believing it can claim victory simply by surviving.
Diplomatic efforts are further complicated by the replacement of killed leaders in US-Israeli airstrikes with even tougher successors, analysts say. The Iranian leadership has clearly expressed distrust of Trump, who has launched airstrikes twice in the past year while negotiations were still ongoing.
"The president is willing to listen, but if he does not accept the reality of the current situation, they will be hit harder than ever," said a White House official.
Meanwhile, Israeli officials have expressed concern that Trump may make concessions that would limit their freedom to continue attacks against Iran.
Washington's Gulf allies could also reject a hasty US withdrawal, considering they would be left with a wounded and hostile neighbor.
Contradictory Signals Disorient Enemies
If Trump were to decide to deploy ground troops, he could try to take control of the oil terminal on Kharg Island or other strategic islands, conduct operations along Iran's coast, or send special forces in a complex attempt to capture the heavily enriched uranium stocks, believed to be mostly buried underground following the June bombings.
Such actions could escalate into a broader conflict, reminiscent of the protracted wars in Iraq and Afghanistan that Trump pledged the US would not repeat. They would also entail increased human losses and raise new questions about the American mission's objectives.
The Gulf allies have warned the administration not to send ground troops into Iran, saying that this could trigger further reprisals from Tehran, including against energy and civilian infrastructure.
A White House official said Trump clarified that "he has no plans to send ground troops anywhere at this time," but added that he is keeping all options open.
For now, Trump is keeping the world in uncertainty, alternating between statements meant to calm volatile markets and threats that lead to rising energy prices.
"Trump is sending mixed signals," said Laura Blumenfeld from the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies in Washington. "He is a true 'fog of war' communication machine, intended to keep adversaries off balance."