Pro-European parties, PSD, PNL, USR, UDMR, have quickly assumed not only a common governance, but also the designation of a common candidate for the upcoming presidential elections. A candidate who is expected to be established based on research that will outline a profile.
The decision, for now theoretical, comes in an extremely serious situation. The fact that there hasn’t been a violent social explosion after the cancellation of the elections doesn’t mean that the tension has decreased.
On the contrary, I would say, it's just that people are afraid to be very vocal, considering the strong actions of the police and prosecutors, in which many don't see the belated dismantling of extremely dangerous groups, but political repression.
But in real life, anger is simmering. Let me give you an example. I've been frequenting a beauty salon for a long time, as it's pretentiously called. The TV is always tuned to a channel airing a morning program as popular as it is inept. Fortunately, with the sound turned down.
These days, the TV was on Realitatea TV, with the volume very loud. The employees and clients were listening attentively and then commenting not so much in admiration of Georgescu, but extremely angry towards the political class. Meetings, mercenaries, photos, weapons, lies, were not part of the conversation. It was about a corrupt system that can no longer be tolerated.
That's why, even if Georgescu disappears from the electoral landscape, which is quite likely, it's only a matter of time until another guru emerges, perhaps even more efficient.
And I'm not referring to Simion, he is already perceived as a part of the system. Various, even more charismatic figures are already making their way on social networks, ready to take over. Sure, it's hard to reach 9th place worldwide on TikTok again, but when the ground is prepared, propagation is not difficult. And now there is also a powerful TV channel, lifted from irrelevance by this current.
Who do you oppose to this wave in the presidential elections?
A common candidate doesn't guarantee anything, it's just a premise with many question marks and even risks. The main thing is for a common candidate to be perceived as a system person in the fight against the anti-system representative.
Before reaching a specific name and face, it should be established whether this common candidate should be a politician or an independent of parties.
An independent could passively reduce the political baggage, although party support would contaminate it, but it's not clear to what extent party structures would advocate for him, which can only be compensated if an exceptionally magnetic character is found, a kind of Georgescu - the good version. For now, it's not visible.
The common candidacy of a politician would imply significant concessions from those who would support the candidate of another party. This could dramatically reflect in their mobilization and that of their electorates.
Even more so since there can only be one major bargaining chip – the position of prime minister. How to split two straws among three mules - PSD, PNL, and USR (UDMR certainly won't claim a position from the duo, only convenient positions)? Who will agree not to have either? And how will the party mobilize in this situation?
Then, if it's a politician, should they be a party leader, to ensure at least the best traction on their side, or a second-tier leader who would be less affected by anti-system anger?
The answer won't be easy to give. But no calculation can ignore principles.
The independent's trap
The current situation is very similar to the post-Colectiv moment. Back then, the political class slipped into panic and to escape popular anger, they pulled out of their hat the technocratic solution - the Cioloș government, invested with immense popular hope. Technocrats were coming to save the country. After a year, PSD, the one ousted from power, won the elections with a staggering score.
Why? Because a technocratic government couldn't live up to expectations, it could only be a mere administrator of current affairs until the return of a political government.
Similarly, an independent president would only be a form of escape, a shield behind which the discredited political class could hide. I've said it countless times, the power of a president depends decisively on the leverage of a political party they control.
Yes, it's a constitutional hypocrisy. But when the president doesn't have this leverage, it's very easy to render them irrelevant. And, along with them, the position itself will be rendered irrelevant.
At this moment, although the temptation is to flee, to evade, the correct solution would not be to deny politics behind the illusion of independence, but to start recredibilizing politics through a credible, convincing candidacy that reflects an understanding of the electoral lesson.
If parties are not able to come up with a viable candidate in the remaining time for measurements and sociological analyses, democracy is lost in Romania.
I refuse to believe that a majority specifically wants a charlatan, a fraud, a seller of illusions. These are few. What I believe is that we have a majority fed up with ribbons, lies, nonsense.
I believe we have a majority willing to judge rationally, to understand, to take responsibility, but only if the one speaking to them is credible not only through speech and charisma, but also through results.
The Iohannis Effect
However, we have a major issue in the communication of the, let's call it, new coalition. Something is missing: the date or at least the period of the presidential elections.
The Constitutional Court has requested the establishment of the new presidential election calendar, from December 21st we enter an uncertain constitutional area, acceptable only as a very short-term emergency, the current government is absolutely capable of issuing the necessary government decision for the elections, in March we could go to the polls. And yet, no rush.
There is information, as I've said, that Mr. Iohannis is the one who wants the delay. He only has one more move to make in appointing a prime minister and is in the convenient situation of not being able to be suspended no matter how abusively he behaves. Moreover, he is facing some parties with an obedience reflex.
No one will believe that the reason is other than the prolongation of his own privileges. The electorate's irritation at this new defiance and at the parties' obedience will be so great that it won't even matter who the common candidate will be. And even if it were Jesus, he would be shattered by the Iohannis effect.