Donald Trump’s victory is not about some kind of conspiracy theories. It is too categorical for that.
Donald Trump’s victory is about what Bill Clinton’s strategist precisely defined as the boulevard for the then Democratic candidate towards the White House: „It’s the economy, stupid!„
The deep America that massively voted for Trump is not concerned about foreign policy, it is too conservative to prioritize the issue of abortion rights, it is not horrified, but on the contrary, in some cases, I would say, by all kinds of excesses of the Republican, by his rudeness.
Deep America is concerned that the price of a gallon of milk has almost doubled in recent years, as I heard a Romanian American citizen saying on Europa FM in a discussion with Cătălin Striblea.
The average American is traumatized by inflation, has felt a substantial decrease in the standard of living, is scared about the future, and exasperated by the wave of migration that creates all sorts of problems in his daily existence, from criminality to distortions in the labor market.
This was broadly the focus of the American elections. Certainly, with a careful analysis, it can be said that the economy has inertia, so the Biden administration has also paid for mistakes of the Trump administration, and the very good recent months for the American economy will be capitalized on by Trump.
Kamala Harris was part of the highest level of the Biden administration, she could not avoid inheriting a part of it, and yet her campaign was rather negative. But the decline truly began when she presented her economic program, which rather scared than gave hope.
But us? What do we vote for?
Romania is also facing important elections and the economic concerns are no different. People have pretty much the same fears starting with prices. And yet, discussions about the economy are somewhat irrelevant, in vain, and rather unserious.
In the USA, it is extremely relevant to ask candidates about their economic and fiscal plans. That's what the campaign is about. Because the president becomes the head of the government, so the winner gains direct leverage to implement them.
When the US presidential candidates say they will lower taxes, like Trump for example, they talk about what they can do.
In Romania, the discussion about these issues is somewhat irrelevant in the context of presidential elections, because the President of Romania does not have any direct leverage in the economy, just like in education, in healthcare. They can only influence through a prime minister they appoint, but over whom they then have no power and through a parliamentary majority that depends on another vote and can be either a partner or hostile.
The discussion about the economy should be the focus of the parliamentary campaign, which, however, does not really exist. Just as we don't have a serious discussion about the prime minister candidates. And it can't exist because the official with the most executive powers, regarding the immediate interests of the citizens, is not voted, has no direct burden, no direct political responsibility towards the electorate.
The sky is not falling
Regarding the future, even the most anti-Trump should be aware that the sky will not fall as it did not fall even after the first victory. Especially because the institutions are strong.
Regarding Ukraine, it is unlikely to stop the war on the first day of the mandate, but with the force of a detached electoral victory and a lot of pragmatism, it is possible to achieve a freeze, the term used by the future vice president. More than that in the short term is unlikely to be possible.
I don't think Trump will allow making Putin a winner because, isn't it so?, America must be great and without the competition of a victorious Russia. And he cannot start his victorious term with a symbolic defeat.
He will probably treat NATO pragmatically, but just as he did not destroy the alliance in the first term, he will not do it now either. By the way, maybe now we understand what Mark Rutte gains with his very good relationship with Trump, at the helm of NATO.
Democracy has spoken in the USA, whether we like it or not. And instead of lamenting, the reasons why Trump, as he is, returned to the White House would be a subject for meditation.
And he, just like the European Trumpist parties, including our caricature AUR, feed mainly on errors and disappointments caused by the opponent.