In the context of geopolitical developments over the past four years, support for Donald Trump in Romania has significantly decreased, reflecting a profound change in Romanians’ perception of the Republican leader.
According to a recent survey published by INSCOP, Romanians seem to lean more towards Kamala Harris, believing that she could strengthen the strategic partnership between Romania and the United States.
This trend is largely influenced by the conflict in Ukraine, where Trump’s positions are perceived with a certain skepticism, in contrast to a more predictable and stable vision brought by the Democratic candidate.
Compared to four years ago, support for Donald Trump in Romania has declined. He is no longer seen as an American leader who will develop the strategic partnership between the two countries.
In a survey published by INSCOP on October 24, 43.4% of Romanian citizens say that Vice President Kamala Harris, if she wins the elections, will be closer to our country than Donald Trump.
On the other hand, 38.4% of Romanians still believe that the Republican leader will have a better relationship with our country.
The main reason for this change is related to the conflict in Ukraine.
"I think Democrat Kamala Harris would be a better friend to Romania, especially: PNL voters, PSD voters, USR voters, people with higher education, residents of Bucharest and major urban areas. I believe that Donald Trump would be a better friend to Romania, especially: George Simion's supporters, AUR supporters, those under 30, private sector employees, TikTok and Instagram users," said Remus Ștefureac, director of INSCOP.
Trump's stance, pressuring for a quick end to the conflict, is seen as detrimental to Ukraine and can be perceived as a threat to stability in Eastern Europe.
Trump Hands Victory to Putin
The US elections are closely watched in Romania by a wide audience. Many people understand that Donald Trump's return to the White House would have an impact on Ukraine, and the former president's friendship with Vladimir Putin will weigh heavily.
"I've seen the statements. Trump said he would resolve the conflict in 24 hours," said Maria Zakharova, the spokeswoman for the Russian Foreign Ministry, "then, the new vice presidential candidate designated by Trump, JD Vance, said that a bigger problem for the US is China, bigger than the Russia-Ukraine conflict. We need to separate pre-election rhetoric from statements by government officials invested with the appropriate authority. If we talk about the possibility of resolving the conflict, let's be realistic," added the Russian official.
However, for many experts in international politics, it is clear that a quick end to the war in Ukraine cannot be achieved without exerting pressure on Volodymyr Zelenskyy by Donald Trump, in the event of his return to the White House, forcing the Ukrainian leader to cede territories.
Such a situation gives Putin the opportunity to declare victory in the war.
Europe Does Not Believe in Trump's Peace Solution
Trump's strategy appears to be simple, direct, and quick, but in reality, such a move may lead to the collapse of the government in Kyiv, the removal of Zelenskyy from power, but not an effective cessation of hostilities.
The war could be continued by part of the Ukrainian army, partisan groups, and mercenary forces, even with a political leadership under Moscow's control.
Romanians' divided opinions reflect both uncertainty and lack of knowledge regarding the relationship that the future US president will have with Romania.
Remus Ștefureac, INSCOP director
In addition, European states will perceive Trump's decision differently, and it is presumed that they will oppose it, not only Romania but also the United Kingdom, the Baltic states supported by the Nordic ones, and Poland. All these countries will feel threatened, and their reactions will be defensive.
"NATO strongly condemns Russia's illegal, unjustified, and unprovoked aggression against Ukraine, which seriously undermines Euro-Atlantic and global security and stability and constitutes a flagrant violation of international law," states the official position of the world's largest military alliance.
"NATO allies, in accordance with the relevant resolutions of the United Nations General Assembly (UN), call on Russia to immediately end the war, cease the use of force against Ukraine, and completely and unconditionally withdraw all forces from Ukraine," further assert the alliance's member states led by the US.
In order to impose a quick resolution to the war in Ukraine, Donald Trump is forced to override NATO's firm position, which will cause greater tensions than in the past between the Republican leader and the political elite in Europe.
Harris Can Improve Biden's Policy
Regarding Kamala Harris, Romanian voters have more confidence in her due to predictability.
The foreign policy of the Democratic Party candidate, in the event of winning the elections on Tuesday, November 5, will be a continuation of the current one.
There is even a possibility of a positive change, with Americans' enthusiasm and support for Ukraine increasing after a potential victory by Kamala Harris and, especially, a new approach from Vladimir Putin, who will realize that continuing the war will become a burden for Russia.
"He screwed it up badly in 2014," Joe Biden reportedly told a close associate, commenting on Barack Obama's lack of response to the Kremlin's military invasion of Crimea.
"Barack never took Putin seriously," emphasized Joe Biden. "We didn't do anything, and thus, we gave Putin the approval to continue. Well, I'm going to revoke that approval," Biden added.
The above conversation appears in the book War, written by American journalist Bob Woodward, and shows the current president's frustration with the US, Germany, and France's decision not to react decisively to the 2014 invasion.
We know you are considering the use of tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine. Any use of nuclear weapons at any scale against anyone would be seen by the United States and the world as a world-changing event. There is no scale of nuclear weapons that we could overlook or that the world could overlook.
Lloyd Austin, US Secretary of Defense, conversation with Sergei Shoigu, Russian Defense Minister, October 2022, according to the book WAR by Bob Woodward
This time, Kamala Harris has the support of the European Union, except for Hungary and Slovakia, to protect Ukraine, both through the transfer of weapons and the development of the defense industry in that country.
Russia's Nuclear Threat
A quick decision that Harris will have to make, if she reaches the White House, will be whether or not to approve Ukraine to use Western missiles to destroy targets in Russia.
"US intelligence services indicated a 50% probability that Putin would use tactical nuclear weapons if Ukrainian forces managed to encircle, in September 2022, 30,000 Russian soldiers in the city of Kherson," as stated in Bob Woodward's book.
The US administration has developed an alert system for the possibility of Putin using nuclear weapons, and at that time, the highest level was recorded, according to the author's sources.
Therefore, if Kamala Harris becomes the US president, she will face Russia's nuclear threat, which will further affect both the relationship with Ukraine and with Romania and the Eastern European countries, very close to the conflict zone.