In September 2017, Hurricane Maria hit the island of Puerto Rico with great force, located 1,600 kilometers southeast of Florida, causing over 3,000 deaths and immense material damage.
At that time, the Trump administration was heavily criticized for its delayed response to the natural disaster and the lack of financial and logistical support for Puerto Rico, compared to other parts of the United States affected by natural disasters.
Although the federal government sent aid, it was considered insufficient and difficult to distribute.
That was the moment when tension arose between Donald Trump and the millions of Puerto Ricans, a tension that persists to this day.
The population of the small island is 3.2 million, and another 5.8 million people born in Puerto Rico live in the United States.
Puerto Ricans have the right to move freely from the island to the federal states, being American citizens. The largest Puerto Rican communities in the continental United States are found in New York, Florida, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania.
An Island of Garbage
And here, in Pennsylvania, problems begin for Donald Trump. Sunday night, at Madison Square Garden, the largest entertainment venue in New York, an important electoral event took place, sponsored by the former American president.
For six hours, local and national political leaders, actors, singers, lawyers, all supporters of Donald Trump, gave speeches, cracked jokes, sang in front of tens of thousands of voters.
The highlight of the show was the intervention of the Republican leader who harshly attacked Kamala Harris, using insulting words and expressions.
But before Trump's speech, comedian Tony Hinchcliffe, known for his racist jokes, in his act referred to Puerto Rico as "a floating island of garbage".
The insult quickly went viral on social media. It was picked up by Kamala Harris' campaign, which turned it into ads running on millions of TVs in Pennsylvania, a key state that will decide the fate of the presidency.
It's an unforced error on the part of a campaign that lacks a strategic vision. Puerto Rican voters are very sensitive about their island and how you talk about their island.
Chuck Rocha, political expert, for The Hill publication, USA
Around 500,000 people of Puerto Rican origin live in this federal state, and if even a small portion of them decide to punish Donald Trump, his campaign's fate is in jeopardy.
Republicans Attempt Damage Control
The sign that the racist remark made at Trump's campaign rally could derail the Republican candidate's course in the last week is the statement released by his team of advisors, something that has not happened before.
In the political events of the former president, insulting competitors is common. Kamala Harris has been showered with all sorts of invectives, "dumb" being the most frequent.
As vice president and U.S. senator, I fought for Puerto Rico and its people. And as president, I will continue this fight for Puerto Ricans. We will restore the power grid, reduce housing costs, and create opportunities to find good jobs and prosperity.
Kamala Harris, Democratic Party candidate for the U.S. presidency
Although Democrats have repeatedly asked not to be insulted by Trump, this has not happened; in fact, the insults have intensified, and Trump's team of advisors has never apologized or provided explanations. This time was different.
"This joke does not reflect the views of President Trump or the campaign," announced Danielle Alvarez, a consultant to the Republican leader, in a press release.
From the reaction, it appears that the racist joke has triggered a sensitive fault line regarding the elections on November 5, confirming at the same time that we are witnessing an extremely tight electoral race where every vote matters.
A Conspiracy Theory Emerges
Pennsylvania has 19 electors. Either of the two candidates who win the most votes in this state will receive all 19 options.
To become the President of the United States, a candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes out of a total of 538.
Each state, depending on its population, is allocated a number of electors. Both Donald Trump and Kamala Harris need to win in Pennsylvania to have a chance to reach the 270 figure. The way the electoral competition between the two looks, the showdown in this state appears to be decisive.
Therefore, the Trump campaign's reaction indicates that a surprise event has occurred, with a significant portion of the Puerto Rican minority at risk of shifting to Kamala Harris with effects that are hard to calculate now but will be seen in the days to come.
On many social media accounts of Trump supporters, a conspiracy theory about Tony Hinchcliffe, the comedian who made the racist reference, has already emerged, suggesting that he was added to the speakers' list by Democrats specifically to sabotage the Republican candidate's campaign.
In reality, no one can come to the podium unannounced at such an electoral event.
The texts of the guests' speeches are analyzed before by the campaign team and approved. According to sources, the comedian received approval for his jokes. The conspiracy theory itself appears to be an operation to limit the disastrous effects of the racist reference.
The October Surprise
Tightly contested electoral competitions can be decided by planned "surprises" from one camp or another or unexpected events that impact a portion of the voters.
In the U.S., this phenomenon is called the "October Surprise," an event that influences some voters occurring a few days before the elections, difficult for opponents to counter. The presidential elections in the United States always take place on the first Tuesday of November.
"Republicans, including Trump's vice president, Senator JD Vance (Ohio), are trying to minimize the damage - either by distancing themselves from what Hinchcliffe said or by suggesting that a joke should not cause so much outrage," reported journalist Niall Stanage for "The Hill."
With less than a week until Election Day, opinion polls show an extremely tight race, practically without a favorite, which can go in any direction.