Zelenski was right. The military incursion into the Kursk region of Russia has caused significant instability in the political regime at the Kremlin. Unfortunately, not enough to stop the war.
Starting from the observation that moving military operations beyond the border is an effective solution to put pressure on Putin, the President of Ukraine has initiated a campaign to persuade Western allies to grant permission to use long-range missiles to destroy targets on Russian territory.
Official and unofficial reactions indicate that such a decision is more challenging to make than all the previous ones regarding the use of weapons and military equipment transferred by Ukraine’s allies.
The main causes are political and military:
- The upcoming elections in the US on November 5;
- The decline in public support for Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who was forced to make concessions to "Putin's friends" in Germany to remain in power;
- The possibility of the Kremlin leader launching a tactical nuclear attack or causing an "accident" by targeting a nuclear power plant in Ukraine;
There is still support in the West for Ukraine's cause, but there are many uncertainties caused by the US electoral campaign, regional elections in Germany, and the deteriorating economic environment in Europe.
When someone proposes alternatives, plans with timid solutions... not only do they ignore the interests and sufferings of Ukrainians who have suffered the most from the war, not only do they ignore reality, but they offer Putin room to continue the war
Volodymyr Zelensky, UN General Assembly speech, New York
Betting on a single card, risky from the perspective of the American administration
A possible return of Donald Trump to the White House would radically change the situation in favor of Putin. The former US president no longer hides the fact that he will quickly stop military aid to Kiev and force Zelensky to accept the Kremlin's conditions.
"Biden and Kamala Harris have been in this conflict for three years and find no resolution... Every time Zelensky comes to the US, he leaves with 100 billion dollars. They are stuck in that war. When I become president, I will resolve the situation. We will leave there. The US will leave there. Russia defeated Hitler and Napoleon. That's what Russia does," stated Donald Trump at a campaign event.
Volodymyr Zelensky traveled to the US to attend the UN General Assembly, using the annual meeting to try to persuade Western leaders to lift restrictions on the use of long-range missiles, promising a swift end to the conflict.
"The war in Russia is closer to an end than many people imagine. If the US approves Ukraine's proposed victory plan, then Russia will be forced to make peace in the first part of next year," stated Volodymyr Zelensky in an interview.
However, Joe Biden is an experienced politician and hesitates to bet everything on a single card, the one presented by the Ukrainian president, whose plan involves a massive and consistent attack on military targets in Russia to compel Putin to withdraw to salvage what remains of his army.
The American leader does not believe that such an attack will immediately lead to Russia's withdrawal, as Zelensky thinks.
Seeking solutions for Trump's return
According to a report from the US Department of Justice, the Kremlin continues to invest tens of millions of dollars to influence the American electoral campaign.
Trump's return to the White House is a real possibility that cannot be ruled out.
Putin is banking everything on the former president, and until the November elections and probably a few weeks after, when the long power transfer process will be completed, the Russian leader will not step back in the Ukrainian conflict.
Even though Harris is leading in the polls, the gap between the two is so narrow that anything can happen.
Volodymyr Zelensky's peace plan has not provided guarantees to the current US president that relinquishing the conditions for using missiles will end the conflict before November. It would have been very difficult.
Joe Biden's main concern, along with his allies Keir Starmer, the British Prime Minister, and Emmanuel Macron, the President of France, is to find a solution for Ukraine to receive military and financial support even if Donald Trump returns to the White House.
We must make the Russian occupying forces withdraw, which will end the hostilities in Ukraine. We must bring the authors of war crimes to justice. We must stop the ecocide... We must not allow a second Russian invasion or a similar one. We must state clearly: the war is over. This is the only formula for peace
Volodymyr Zelensky, UN General Assembly speech, New York
For many experts in international politics, including former members of Trump's team, it is clear that the former president's strategy to end the war in Ukraine is superficial and has only one component, putting significant pressure on Kiev to surrender to Putin.
But such a situation could lead to a bigger crisis - the collapse of the political regime in Ukraine, revolts, civil war, the possible formation of resistance forces against Russia, and a different stance from European countries, some continuing to support Ukraine.
The collaboration between Trump and Putin aims only at removing Zelensky and plunging Ukraine into chaos, allowing the Russian president to declare victory.
"I don't think Ukraine can win with one hand tied behind its back. So I think we need to end this discussion, give what is necessary, and actually do the opposite - ask Ukraine what it needs to win this war. And then, we must ensure they have what they need," stated Mette Frederiksen, Prime Minister of Denmark, in an interview with the New York Times.
The toughest days
Whatever expectations Volodymyr Zelensky had from his trip to the US, they will be postponed until after the November elections.
America, the UK, France, and Germany will not officially lift restrictions on the use of long-range missiles on Russia. Not now.
Such a decision will be up to Kamala Harris if she reaches the White House, as part of a broader package of measures that will be presented to Russia, demanding it to stop military aggression and come to the negotiation table.
The toughest 40 days for Ukraine are ahead, and at the end of them lies a crossroads - the path to victory or its indefinite postponement with much pain, death, and destruction.
The heroism on the battlefield of Kiev's soldiers has changed the world and brought Putin's Russia close to its end. It will either collapse in a few months or last longer, during which the crimes will continue.
"Vladimir Putin, when you shoot rockets at hospitals in Ukraine, we know who is doing it. When you send mercenaries to African countries, we know who gave the order. When you kill your opponents in European cities, we know who sent the assassins. The invasion targets your own interests. Only yours. To expand your mafia state, to turn it into a mafia empire. An empire built on corruption by plundering the Russian and Ukrainian people. An empire built on crushing dissent, eliminating courageous opponents like Navalny. An empire built on lies," stated David Lammy, UK Foreign Minister, in an explosive speech delivered at the UN General Assembly.