Marcel Ciolacu periodically utters a phrase that he seems determined to firmly implant in the minds of the Social Democrats: power must be shared, if PSD gets the president, it will not get the prime minister, even if it is in the governing coalition. Wherever he goes, Mr. Ciolacu repeats this principle, which is indeed healthy, but unsettling for the PSD troops.
The party’s major battle to secure the presidency is also a matter of pride, of course, but mainly to avoid the bitter experience with both Traian Băsescu and initially with Klaus Iohannis: even if they won the elections, they did not govern because the incumbent president did not appoint their prime minister, so they remained in the Opposition.
Certainly, with Marcel Ciolacu as president, as the country's main party, they would not be condemned to opposition, that's for sure. But, as an experienced Social Democrat from the local authority told me: we are more interested in the prime minister, because that's where the money is.
The Social Democrats also know that a prime minister appointed by Parliament no longer depends on the president who designated them. They know that a sitting prime minister can lose the majority, but can also create another majority, just as Călin Popescu Tăriceanu did with the PSD, after expelling the PDL from the government.
At Antena3, Marcel Ciolacu showed that he understands the confusion his announcement has caused among mayors and county council presidents: "It's a matter of common sense, if you want to build. It's not about us, it's about the international context. Power needs to be shared."
Why Does Marcel Ciolacu Insist
Social Democrats are convinced that Marcel Ciolacu will not keep his word. Of course, it's possible, even traditional in Romanian politics. But the statement was repeated not only for the internal audience, and the external one would not easily overlook such a lie. He wouldn't be credible from the start.
Even if Mr. Ciolacu sincerely believes in this principle, it's hard to understand why he feels the need to keep repeating it during the campaign, even though it may have a demobilizing effect.
Only if you want to encourage your own to think not only about who they want as president, Marcel Ciolacu of course, but also who would be the ideal non-PSD prime minister for them in the coming years.
The first question is who PSD could form a coalition with. The answer is quite clear: with PNL. It's not possible with the sovereigntists if PSD wants to have a presence in the world, and Marcel Ciolacu has already ruled out the possibility. It can't work with USR. And it's unlikely that UDMR would be enough. So, apart from PNL, there isn't really another way.
Nicolae Ciucă is certainly the ideal non-PSD prime minister. The governance of the liberal president was even more profitable for PSD than the current government, because the funds were just as plentiful, but politically they did not offset the erosion to the same extent.
Equally, Nicolae Ciucă is also the most accessible rival for Marcel Ciolacu in the presidential final. A final that would be as boring as it is comfortable. One would become president, the other would be prime minister, neither would consider themselves defeated, and the majority score would be enhanced by the electoral bonus of the two parties that sent their candidates to the final.
If Nicolae Ciucă performs very poorly and does not make it to the final, he will certainly be removed from the leadership of the PNL, and a victorious Marcel Ciolacu would be forced either to retract his statement about power sharing or to appoint some liberal who would greatly complicate the lives of the Social Democrats.
So, if Social Democrats take Mr. Ciolacu seriously, they are implicitly encouraged to also root for Nicolae Ciucă, the best prime minister for them if Marcel Ciolacu wins the presidential election, and the best president for them if Marcel Ciolacu loses the election.
But the collusion could be even more extensive, and we will soon find out about this.
The Grand Collusion Test
Leaders of the two liberal parliamentary groups have submitted a bill, with a request for urgent procedure, which would allow Klaus Iohannis to run independently on the PNL electoral list for the Senate. The Ion Iliescu model.
However, no legislative amendment can be made by PNL alone. Why would PSD agree to such a thing?
The explanation can be one, in line with the agreement for the merger of elections and joint lists on June 9 - a collusion in the name of stability.
If PSD agrees, it is clear that PNL and PSD have struck a deal for the major division of roles in December: the president and the prime minister to go in the Nicu and Marcel tandem, in whatever order, and Klaus Iohannis to become the Senate president and the PNL president, waiting for an external position for which he will be proposed.
Thus, it would also put an end to the party takeover revolution being prepared post-election by the liberals who have emerged under Crin Antonescu.
The key is for Nicolae Ciucă to somehow make it to the second round, a mission for which not only PSD seems to be working hard, but also substantially helps the candidates with better chances to get there, Elena Lasconi and Mircea Geoană, engaged in a dizzying competition of major blunders.