Marcel Ciolacu’s hopes, whatever he had left, of having a presidential final with George Simion suffered another blow with the launch of Cristian Terheș’ candidacy for the presidency and his new sovereignist pole.
For George Simion, the blow is twofold. On the one hand, the percentages, of course. The sovereignist electoral base will be divided with two other candidates – the radicalized part will take it, just like on June 9th, Diana Șoșoacă, and the more pretentious part, Cristian Terheș.
Certainly, it remains to be seen if the two will gather their signatures, but at least Diana Șoșoacă succeeded at the European Parliament elections.
The second blow comes from the fact that Mr. Simion placed Cristian Terheș at the top of the AUR list for the European Parliament elections. He thus offered him to the electorate and the AUR party as a highly trusted political figure. This raises questions about his leadership judgment.
Macron of Romania
In the upcoming week, it is expected that Mircea Geoană will announce his candidacy for the presidency of Romania. "On a personal level, my decision is made, on a political and institutional level, I have to respect the NATO rules and I will make the formal and official announcement when I finish my mandate (at NATO), and this will end in the immediate future," said Mircea Geoană a week ago.
But it's not just about the candidacy launch itself, but also about the political structure launch to mobilize Mr. Geoană's candidacy, from collecting signatures, organizing the campaign, to representing in polling stations, and equally important, to give realism to the candidate's political plan. A president without a political leverage party is completely powerless.
The President of the Civic Movement "Romania Reborn," Prof. Univ. Dr. Dumitru Borțun, who asked Mircea Geoană to run, announced on Thursday the imminent appearance of a new party.
"There is already talk among my colleagues that a party is desired. Some want to participate in elections and it is not excluded that such a party will be born in just a few days, which will have a significant presence, a significant weight in Parliament, and will help Mr. Mircea Geoană to obtain the necessary signatures and to safeguard his votes."
So, the "Macronist" plan outlined by Mircea Geoană last summer on Europa FM is taking shape - the presidential party. It is true that in France, Macronism is currently in a deep crisis, which could mark the final failure of President Macron, but we always have a historical delay, so it is possible that this somewhat second-hand offer may also be successful.
A bigger issue will be the Romanian electorate's reactivity towards parties, especially since the most recent investments of trust in new parties have not been very successful. There is also a discussion about to what extent a candidate with their own party can still be called independent of parties, as Mr. Geoană has been profiling until now.
If the plan works, it could have significant effects on the campaign, considering that Mr. Geoană's major weakness in this fight was precisely the lack of a political vehicle.
Moreover, in recent weeks, Mr. Geoană's percentages have stagnated, there are voices talking about decreases, indicating that uncertainty has become somewhat boring for the electorate.
In Mircea Geoană's corridor, there are two more competitors. Ana Birchall, announced for some time, and recently entered, Cristian Diaconescu, both declared independents.
If their independence is real, their chances of gathering the 200 thousand signatures are not very high. It will be much easier if they are helped by those who desire to chip away at Mircea Geoană's percentages, probably not spectacularly, but especially for the liberals, who are striving as much as they can to send Nicolae Ciucă to the final round, any percentage taken by opponents in the first round is valuable.