Day 872 Kiev believes that the Russians will attack again from the north. Belarus is reducing troops at the border with Ukraine

Day 872 Kiev believes that the Russians will attack again from the north. Belarus is reducing troops at the border with Ukraine

On the 872nd day of war, Russia launched two guided Russian missiles and multiple reconnaissance drones, which were shot down by Ukrainian air defense.

On the other side, Ukrainian sources confirmed that the Ukrainian Security Service was behind the fire at the Saturday oil depot in the Russian region of Rostov. Over 30 refineries, oil terminals, and oil depots in Russia have been targeted by Ukrainian attacks by the end of June.

Also from Ukraine, the head of Ukrainian military intelligence, Kirilo Budanov, stated that he is convinced Russia will attempt a new attack from the north on Ukraine in the coming months. He did not specify if the offensive would take place in the Sumy or Chernihiv direction, but enigmatically added that this year will not bring much good news.

And there is unexpected news from Belarus. President Alexander Lukashenko stated that he requested the withdrawal of additional troops deployed at the border with Ukraine, claiming that tensions have eased there and that the additional Ukrainian troops have already been withdrawn. However, a spokesperson for the Ukrainian border guard denied that there had been any additional deployments of Ukrainian forces.

French President Emmanuel Macron discussed the possibility of increasing defense budget in 2025, considering a "convergence of threats," especially in light of the conflict in Ukraine.

What's happening on the front

  • Missiles and drones shot down - Ukrainian air defense announced that it shot down two Russian guided missiles Kh-59/Kh-69 and four reconnaissance drones last night. The targets were neutralized in the eastern part of the country, as reported by Ukrainska Pravda.
  • Rostov oil depot hit by Ukrainian drones - The Saturday fire at the oil depot in the Russian region of Rostov was caused by drones launched by the Ukrainian Security Service, according to a source within this structure cited by Kyiv Independent. "According to our information, SBU drones caused the explosion at the facility where various gasoline and diesel brands with a total volume of 12,500 cubic meters were stored," the source mentioned. Russian authorities announced on Saturday that four drones were destroyed, two in Rostov and two in the Belgorod and Kursk regions. Over 30 refineries, oil terminals, and oil depots in Russia have been targeted by Ukrainian attacks by the end of June, according to President Volodymyr Zelensky.
  • Ukrainians await Russians in the north - The Head of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense, Kirilo Budanov, is convinced that in the coming months, Russia will once again attempt to attack Ukrainian territory from the north. "You see, this is a somewhat anecdotal situation for me. For two years, when everyone was shouting that there would be an attack from the north, we told everyone that it would not happen. Nothing happened. The moment I said there would be an attack from the north, everyone immediately said: Maybe it won't happen? It will happen! It's already happening," Budanov declared in an interview for Ukrainskaia Pravda. According to journalists, Budanov said this "firmly," but did not specify whether he referred to the Sumy or Chernihiv direction. "If I start answering this question, we will cause panic. Let's just say that there are issues, and they tend to worsen. There is no catastrophe, but it is impossible not to see the problems. I have already told someone in the Western press that I will not have much good news this year, unfortunately," the GUR chief stated enigmatically.
  • Lukashenko withdraws troops from the border with Ukraine - Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko stated on Saturday that tensions have decreased at the border with Ukraine, so the additional troops deployed there can be sent back to their bases, as reported by Reuters. On Saturday, Lukashenko toured a border region and stated, as quoted by the official news agency BelTA, that Belarusian intelligence services have determined that Ukraine has withdrawn its troops from sensitive areas. "This means that those (Ukrainian) troops that were brought as reinforcements have now left," Lukashenko said. "Now there are no more difficulties with the Ukrainians, and I hope there won't be any more," he added. The Belarusian Ministry of Defense announced last month that it was strengthening its presence at the border after a security incident and in response to the reinforcement of Ukrainian troops. Minsk announced that a division of multiple launch rocket systems was deployed to test their combat readiness. A spokesperson for the Ukrainian border guard denied any additional deployments of Ukrainian forces.

Other relevant information

  • Macron advocates increasing the defense budget - In his traditional speech to the armed forces on France's National Day, President Emmanuel Macron stated on Saturday that it will be "necessary" to "adjust" the defense budget in 2025 due to the "convergence of threats," especially following the war in Ukraine, as reported by AFP. "The acceleration of time and the convergence of threats mean that we must make new adjustments. That is why I ask you to continue to assess the consequences of the war as it will be tomorrow and not as we imagined it yesterday and to prepare an adjustment of our military schedule for 2025," the head of state declared in front of a senior officer audience. However, "I am talking about an adjustment, not a complete revision," the president emphasized. The Military Planning Law (LPM) 2024-2030 foresees a 40% increase compared to the previous LPM, with 413 billion euros over seven years.

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