Donald Trump did not randomly send the National Guard to Los Angeles. He immediately used the revolt against forced deportations to get out of the crisis that threatened to compromise his mandate.
The open conflict with Elon Musk created a crack in MAGA, and Trump needed a solution to divert attention from the billionaire’s barrage of posts on his own social network.
Donald Trump is not interested in the situation in California, a state controlled by Democrats, he had no goal of increasing his popularity in Los Angeles or San Francisco. Instead, he aims to not lose support in the Republican states of middle America and create political polarization from the perspective of next year’s elections.
The only area where the current president has excelled, according to opinion polls, is in limiting illegal immigration. In reality, the draconian way in which law enforcement operates has led to the isolation of the USA, the collapse of tourism, and the halt of the flow of international students enrolling in American universities.
A crisis with an unknown ending
ICE (Immigration and Customs Enforcement) has become an agency that terrorizes America. Police officers act brutally, making arrests on the streets in broad daylight, being accused of detaining individuals with residency, tourists, or even citizens.
Despite all the excesses, 54% of Americans support Donald Trump's policy of deporting illegal immigrants, according to a CBS/YouGov opinion poll, published on June 9.
With such support, the American president hopes that by sending armed forces to California, he will increase his popularity and make the fight against immigrants the central point of his mandate.
Declaring all situations as emergencies is starting to lean towards allowing the use of government force and violence against individuals not favored by the political power.
Frank O. Bowman, law professor, University of Missouri, for New York Times
Thus, Trump's strategy is to restore his authority tarnished by the failure of economic policies through imposing tariffs, but also his international influence compromised by the inability to coordinate peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine.
Although the American president's strategy has borne fruit so far, an expansion and intensification of the protests create a crisis with an unknown ending.
Newsom, the new leader of the Democrats
Donald Trump won a new term in the White House with strong support from the Hispanic community in the USA. He also garnered many votes from the segment of young and colored voters who viewed Kamala Harris with distrust.
A major polarization in society, the loss of support from voters who feel threatened by Donald Trump's anti-immigration policy, as well as long-standing social tensions, could lead to achieving an effect contrary to what the US president had hoped for.
Another development that complicates Donald Trump's plans is the rise in popularity of California Governor Gavin Newsom, from the Democratic Party.
The confrontation with the American president can help him build a profile as a candidate with chances in the 2028 presidential elections.
But until then, Newsom has a great opportunity to become the leader of the party, which is in an identity crisis after last year's brutal defeat.
Newsom's main mistake is that he ran for governor because he did a very poor job in California. What he did to that state is similar to what Biden did to this country...
Donald Trump, US President
Despite the debates within the MAGA movement, Donald Trump has no way to enter the race for a third term.
Already, JD Vance has positioned himself as a possible Republican candidate in the upcoming elections, seeking the support of Elon Musk and Peter Thiel, the billionaires who have funded Donald Trump so far.
Unconstitutional political maneuver
“The absurdity of threatening US citizens with their own army is condemnable. Donald Trump, retreat! Immediately cancel the illegal order,” wrote Governor Newsom in a post on X/Twitter.
Donald Trump's decision to send the National Guard to California without the state authorities requesting it is seen as an attempt by the president to concentrate power. Some commentators say it is a forcing of constitutional provisions, with the possibility of a broader confrontation between the leadership of American states and federal agencies.
“The president has declared a completely false state of emergency to expand his power, undermine the Constitution, and destroy civil liberties,” stated Ilya Somin, law professor, for New York Times.
Following the intervention of National Guard troops and Marines, the protests did not subside. On the contrary, they spread to several cities in California and Texas.
Donald Trump used a crisis he created to try to save his mandate, but there is a possibility that he has triggered a large-scale revolt that could turn against him.