Russia has threatened the United Kingdom with „consequences” after drones produced by British companies were used by Ukraine to target sites on Russian territory. Moscow’s message is harsh, but the military aid currently provided to Kyiv does not represent, in itself, a major change compared to what London has done so far.
However, the threat may have a political purpose and comes at a time when Russia is increasingly feeling the effects of Ukrainian attacks deep into its territory, as analyzed by The Guardian.
At the same time, there are reasons why the Kremlin's warning cannot simply be ignored: Russia has intensified its hostile operations and hybrid actions in Europe in recent years, and the United Kingdom is one of its constant targets.
What Triggered the Threat
It all started after the Sunday Times reported that Ukraine used two types of drones produced by British companies to strike targets in Russia. Sources from the British Ministry of Defence confirmed the information. One of the models used was publicly identified: the Nyan drone, produced by BAE Systems.
The Russian Embassy in London immediately accused the United Kingdom of deliberately choosing to "escalate the Ukrainian crisis," while claiming to seek peace.
This was followed by the actual threat: "London's actions will inevitably have consequences, for which it will have to answer," transmitted the Russian embassy.
How Important Is the British Drone, Actually
However, The Guardian notes that the delivery of these drones is difficult to consider a radical change in the military support provided to Ukraine.
The United Kingdom has been assisting Kyiv with weapons and funds even before the large-scale Russian invasion and has committed to providing £3 billion annually for military support until the end of this decade.
The Nyan drone costs approximately £100,000. It is powered by a jet engine, has a delta wing, and can strike targets over 240 kilometers away. However, its payload is relatively small, and the British publication estimates that the weapon is not of significant military importance.
Furthermore, London has previously supplied Ukraine with much more powerful weapons.
These include Storm Shadow cruise missiles, which cost over a million pounds each and have been used by Ukraine for attacks on targets in Russia. However, stocks of these missiles have significantly decreased.
Meanwhile, Ukraine has developed its own long-range weapons, including Flamingo cruise missiles and drones capable of striking much further inside Russia.
Why Is Moscow Raising the Tone Now
The explanation could be primarily political. Western financial support is essential for Ukraine's ability to continue the war, and the Kremlin has every interest in fueling public fears in countries aiding Kyiv and putting pressure on Western governments.
However, there is another reason. Russia is beginning to feel the economic impact of the Ukrainian campaign of deep strikes on its territory. Kyiv's drones and missiles have repeatedly hit refineries, industrial installations, and, more recently, logistical centers and depots near Moscow.
The attacks have become almost daily. For the first time since the war began, Ukraine can repeatedly target objects in Moscow and its surroundings, over 480 kilometers from the Ukrainian border.
Western leaders have long hesitated to provide Kyiv with such a capability. Ultimately, Ukraine developed it on its own.
However, Threats Do Not Come Out of Nowhere
Even though Moscow's current message has a strong political stake, Russia's history of actions against the United Kingdom and other European states makes the warning to be taken seriously.
Russia has been accused for years of hostile operations on British soil. Alexander Litvinenko, a former Russian intelligence officer, was fatally poisoned with polonium in London in 2006. In 2018, former Russian spy Sergei Skripal and his daughter, Yulia, were poisoned with the Novichok nerve agent in Salisbury.
Russian hackers constantly target British entities, and online disinformation campaigns are another component of Moscow's pressure tactics.
Lately, Russia's attributed actions in Europe have become more risky. The Guardian recalls incendiary attacks with devices hidden in DHL parcels, including in the UK, drone incursions, and aerial harassment campaigns carried out in various European areas.
Russia would have been very likely behind an attempt to attack Ukrainian cargo planes at Leipzig airport in Germany earlier this month. In that case, a small drone loaded with plastic explosives was supposed to be used.
All these suggest that Russia is willing to increasingly bring the effects of the war in Ukraine onto European soil.
What Russia Could Do Against the United Kingdom
John Foreman, a former British Defense attaché in Moscow, believes the most likely response is simple: Russia will continue what it is already doing. This could mean cyber attacks, sabotage, arson, clandestine operations, and disinformation campaigns.
According to Foreman, Russia constantly targets critical British infrastructure, democratic processes, supply chains, and the population's trust in institutions. Moscow has both the intention and the necessary experience to continue such unconventional attacks, says the former diplomat.
The greatest danger is for this game of threats and challenges to eventually spiral out of control. Therefore, concludes The Guardian, the United Kingdom and NATO must prevent Russia's pressure on Europe from leading to a much broader confrontation.
G.P.