Europe and the major democracies in Asia have the potential to become a superpower in their own right if they manage to act in a coordinated manner, says Max Boot, a columnist for The Washington Post and a foreign policy analyst, in an opinion analysis published by the American daily.
In the context of an increasingly unpredictable foreign policy of the United States, this informal alliance could reshape the global balance of power.
The starting point of the analysis is the now-famous speech by Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, delivered at the World Economic Forum in Davos, in which he called on "middle powers" to defend their interests in a world where major powers increasingly ignore international rules. Carney cited not only Russia's invasion of Ukraine and China's claims in the South China Sea but also President Donald Trump's threats of annexing Greenland and imposing punitive tariffs on traditional U.S. allies.
"Middle powers need to act together," Carney said, "because if we're not at the table, we're on the menu."
Who Are the Truly Relevant "Middle Powers"
Max Boot emphasizes that he is not referring to countries in the so-called Global South – such as Brazil, India, Indonesia, or South Africa – which often do not share the positions of Western democracies. Furthermore, the author notes, former President Joe Biden has realized how challenging it is to mobilize these countries against Russian aggression in Ukraine.
Instead, there is a clear convergence between the non-American members of NATO – Europe and Canada – and the major democracies in the Asia-Pacific region: Australia, Japan, New Zealand, South Korea, and Taiwan.
A "Eurasian Bloc" with Superpower Strength
If these states were to act in concert, they would form a standalone superpower, argues Max Boot. According to his calculations, this "Eurasian bloc" would encompass nearly 900 million inhabitants, have a GDP of $39.5 trillion, defense expenditures of around $830 billion, and 3.1 million active military personnel.
In comparison, the United States has 338 million inhabitants and a GDP of around $31 trillion, with estimated defense spending of $850 billion. China has a larger population but lags behind in other aspects, and Russia is even further behind: its GDP, at around $2.5 trillion, is "considerably smaller than that of California," notes the author.
Why Is There No Unity: NATO, EU, and Lack of Coordination
The main obstacle to this potential superpower is the lack of unity. Unlike Russia, China, or the U.S., which are nation-states, NATO brings together 32 states, and the European Union has 27 members. Europe's resources are "only loosely coordinated," and connections with Asian democracies are fragmented, as they are more connected through separate alliances with the U.S. rather than among themselves.
However, Boot believes that there are concrete, albeit politically challenging, steps that could change this situation.
Radical Ideas: EU Expansion, European Army, and New Alliance with Asian Democracies
Among the proposals put forward are the return of the United Kingdom to the European Union and the acceptance of Ukraine and Canada into the bloc – with Canada being, "in spirit if not geographically," part of Europe. The author also suggests abandoning the unanimity rule in the EU to avoid blockages imposed by small states like Hungary or Slovakia.
Additionally, he advocates for the creation of a new "quad" dialogue format between Europe, Australia, Japan, and South Korea, which could eventually lead to the globalization of NATO or the emergence of an Asian equivalent. Meanwhile, the EU should move towards forming a "European army," with the Nordic and Baltic states at the forefront of military integration.
Trade Without the U.S. and Carney's Proposed Bridge
The West is already beginning to reduce its economic dependence on the United States. The EU has concluded trade agreements with India and five South American states, and Canada has signed more limited partnerships with China and Qatar. In response, as Max Boot recalls, Donald Trump threatened Canada with 100% tariffs.
Carney proposes an even more ambitious step: "building a bridge between the Trans-Pacific Partnership and the European Union," which would create a trade bloc of 1.5 billion people.
Accelerated Rearmament and Dependence on South Korea
Militarily, Europe is rapidly expanding its defense capabilities. European expenditures have doubled in the past decade, and a German company is set to produce more 155mm artillery shells annually than the entire American industry.
At the same time, European states are increasingly relying on South Korea's defense industry. Poland is purchasing South Korean tanks, howitzers, and aircraft, while Norway has decided to invest $2 billion in long-range artillery produced in Seoul. Canada, in turn, is discussing the acquisition of more Gripen aircraft and a smaller number of American F-35s.
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The Nuclear Dilemma: Can Allies Abandon the U.S. Umbrella?
However, there are key areas where allies lag far behind the U.S.: stealth aircraft, long-range missiles, and satellite reconnaissance. The most sensitive chapter is the nuclear one. Only the United Kingdom and France possess their own nuclear weapons, and London depends on Trident missiles made in the U.S.
In a context where, according to a survey cited by The Washington Post, only 18% of Germans still consider the U.S. a reliable ally, the author suggests that more and more countries – from Canada and the Nordic states to Germany, Poland, South Korea, or Japan – could consider their own nuclear deterrence capabilities.
A Risky Bet for "America First"
Supporters of the "America First" doctrine may find it acceptable that allies go their own way, and Donald Trump already claims credit for the increase in Europe's defense spending. However, Max Boot warns that the long-term effects could be contrary to American interests.
More independent allies would be "harder to control," less willing to do business with the U.S., and even more reluctant to host American military bases. In Trump's suggested logic – that America defends territories it owns – the question arises as to why other states would continue to provide space for American military presence.
If these "formidable middle powers" manage to unite, they may not miss the era of American dominance, concludes Max Boot. "Americans, however, are very likely to."