It’s very hard to decipher the mystery why the President of Romania wanted PSD in power, thus escaping from the zone of influence limitation through the pressure exerted by PNL and USR in the initial coalition called pro-European.
In recent months, I have asked dozens of politicians, analysts, and journalist colleagues what was the mistake that led Nicușor Dan to be isolated at the Cotroceni Palace, at the mercy of Sorin Grindeanu and Olguța Vasilescu, the leaders of PSD?
To provide an answer, I must emphasize that the President of Romania is the most powerful person in the country and a political leader who has a say in the European power structure. Theoretically.
According to the Constitution, he has broad decision-making powers, having under his authority the entire institutional structure of defense and national security.
All this chain of errors he made was triggered by an initial action, a wrong decision, which threw him into a situation with no way out.
Power comes with responsibility. The more you have, in a democratic system, the more you must exercise it with restraint, precision, and justification.
Romania has reached this point, where its destiny will continue to be controlled by PSD, most likely in association with AUR, because Nicușor Dan missed the presidential mandate.
The original sin
The head of state was formed as a political figure in the progressive area. His friends, his family live in this bubble. Their aspirations are liberal, as well as their education. However you look at the president, it's impossible to overlook the awkwardness that accompanies him for deceiving the expectations of those who placed their hopes in him.
He may dodge journalists' questions, may dismiss press requests, may conduct his mandate in a controlled environment, but he cannot avoid the puzzled looks of those close to him, former friends, party colleagues, work colleagues. No matter how cynical he may be, it's hard to deny his past, identity, and belonging.
Yes, Nicușor Dan is a nationalist, but he is also a progressive. And in no way is he a populist or extremist. There is no sign in his entire career that he desires absolute power or that he is an enemy of democracy, the rule of law, or "the rule of law," as he recently said in a speech.
It's true, he is cynical, tough, holds grudges, probably, is vengeful, stubborn, all are flaws, and as a country's president, he should have hidden them, buried them as deep as possible, but that's not what caused such a rapid collapse in terms of public support, leading him to political isolation and dependence on PSD.
The original sin, as indicated by several political sources, must be sought in the 2025 electoral campaign, when he was most open to the public opinion. At that time, there were commentators who noticed his tendency to talk a lot about the economy, which was an exit from the constitutional framework.
The executive powers of the President of Romania are limited to defense, justice, and foreign policy. The responsibility for the economy lies with the prime minister, the second most powerful person in the state.
Many of us tend to seek complicated explanations for certain events and situations, creating theories that often tend to become conspiratorial in an attempt to understand something, an event, or a hermetic phenomenon, such as, for example, the so radical change of the President of Romania.
Alignment with PSD
In reality, the truth is often much simpler, our mistakes and flaws being part of the story.
Nicușor Dan's mistake was that he believed and acted, convinced that he was right, trying to impose his economic vision on everyone.
It is not known whether this effort was driven by a sense of shame, embarrassment, writing on a piece of paper, in front of the cameras, that he would not raise VAT, or from the belief that, following his calculations, there was a way to reduce Romania's deficit without changing this tax.
This enigma can only be solved by Nicușor Dan, but after months of digging through the twisted corridors of Romanian politics, here was the original sin.
At that time, both during the election campaign and immediately after he arrived at the Cotroceni Palace, Nicușor Dan had already learned from experts in the country and abroad that there was no solution to rapidly reduce the deficit, thus avoiding economic collapse, without increasing VAT.
Unfortunately, his calculations showed otherwise, and with his characteristic stubbornness, he bet on them.
Furthermore, we all know what happened. The increase in VAT by the prime minister he wanted in the campaign destroyed the relationship between the president and Ilie Bolojan, the head of the Government and leader of the PNL, then with Dominic Fritz and USR.
Cutting off communication with the two political parties made Nicușor Dan vulnerable, and his only way to survive at the Cotroceni Palace was to align with PSD.
A long way
What is happening today is the consequence of a wrong political calculation, because regarding the other calculation, the VAT one, we will never know if the president's equation was correct or not.
If he had not made promises without coverage in the campaign, had not written something on a napkin that was beyond his presidential mandate, if he had, later on, the power to admit his mistake and find a trace of humility and, probably, humanity, which would have been appreciated by public opinion, today PSD would not govern Romania again, taking us back a decade, to the era of Liviu Dragnea.
Nicușor Dan will not be able to avoid a conflict with PSD especially, because the Social Democrats will soon need a scapegoat for their failures in governance and a new collapse in polls.
Just as the Social Democrats "rode" Bolojan, they will start doing the same with Nicușor Dan, especially since AUR supports them and is eager to score politically.
Unfortunately, although there are schools, specializations, courses on how to be a leader, how to lead, and how to become a successful political figure, all of these are worth nothing when the personality of a winner in a political battle comes into play. It can destroy everything, reshape institutions, people, a country, and even the entire world.
Between intelligence and wisdom, there is a long way, for many, impossible to traverse.