The week starting today could mark a total reset of the electoral campaign, at times predictable, at times entirely exceptional.
Călin Georgescu claims that at the moment of being lifted from traffic, to be taken for questioning as a suspect at PICCJ, he was ready to officially register his candidacy with BEC. Then, he announced that he would take this step on Saturday afternoon. He did not do it, perhaps because today the court is expected to rule on the appeal against judicial control.
Or maybe because, from the moment of filing the candidacy, he enters a tight schedule, of a maximum of 5 days, at the end of which he will most likely be excluded from the electoral game, and before taking the step, he must be sure that he has negotiated the best option for his own continuation.
Five days
According to Law 370/2004, BEC has a maximum of 48 hours from the registration of the candidacy to verify compliance with the substantive and formal conditions required by law and to decide on admission or rejection.
From the moment BEC announces its decision, there are 24 hours for appeals to the CCR. Any Romanian citizen can appeal the admission of the candidacy.
CCR must resolve each appeal within 2 days of its submission. Unlike BEC, CCR verifies the constitutionality conditions of the candidacy, as established by itself in the case of Diana Șoșoacă, and, according to the law, is the supreme court in the field of presidential elections.
The CCR judgment is not of a penal nature, it is not related to the presumption of innocence, it assesses the candidate's compliance with the constitutionality conditions established by CCR in the case of Șoșoacă. These conditions concern the candidate's adherence to Romania's membership in the EU and NATO, multipartisanship, democracy, and the rule of law.
Therefore, within a maximum of 5 days from the submission of the candidacy, Călin Georgescu will find out whether he will be on the ballot on May 4 or not.
The probability of CCR rejecting Călin Georgescu's candidacy depends on minimal jurisprudential consistency. If just 6 months ago you eliminated Diana Șoșoacă, it is impossible to admit Călin Georgescu for statements and actions infinitely more serious on all the above levels.
Călin Georgescu announces the disappearance of parties, threatens the CCR judges and magistrates, calls for Romania to take parts of Ukraine despite the treaties signed by our country, is officially indicted for incitement to coup d'état, establishment of fascist and anti-Semitic organizations.
Georgescu's Calculation
The sooner Georgescu's candidacy is submitted, the more time remains for the extremists to regroup. But Călin Georgescu is playing for his own survival. He needs a candidate to pull for him and once elected, to get him out of the legal troubles that could practically bring him a lifelong prison sentence.
George Simion, who is closely attached to him for taking over the candidacy, would have no interest in saving his rival, the one who, let's not forget, seriously injured him on November 24.
Just like Victor Ponta, he would have every reason to do everything possible to get rid of him. The only one he could presumably trust would be his wife, a candidacy, however, difficult to impose on George Simion.
But until he obtains guarantees for his future, Călin Georgescu can postpone the submission of his candidacy, reducing the time for recovery.
However, it is expected that this week the candidacy will be submitted because otherwise even his supporters may become impatient and frustrated. Supporters who are not as mobilized beyond the hardcore, completely mesmerized.
The proof is the modest participation in Saturday's protest in Bucharest, intended for a million people, from which only a few tens of thousands gathered from across the country.
Redistribution of Votes
Regardless of who takes over the baton from Călin Georgescu, it is clear that the transfer of capital cannot be made in full. Some of his supporters will demobilize, I personally know some who are determined not to vote for anyone anymore, and the remaining active ones will split between the one who will become his legal heir and Victor Ponta.
Victor Ponta will take the largest part of the many PSD supporters currently under Georgescu's spell. This is bad news not only for Crin Antonescu, but also for Marcel Ciolacu.
Because, under these conditions, Victor Ponta is a major threat to his position as party leader. True, just like in the case of Mircea Geoană, we can trust in Victor Ponta's talent for self-destruction even unprovoked. But it's not a guarantee.
So if Georgescu disappears, with a Crin Antonescu who fails to take off, the only solution for Marcel Ciolacu would be to enhance the governing coalition with USR and the electoral alliance with USR and Nicușor Dan, where all pro-European forces support Ilie Bolojan for the presidency, and he retains his position as prime minister, which will also secure his leadership of the party.
The proposal already made by Marcel Ciolacu to Elena Lasconi seems to have been a rather timid start in this direction. However, time is very short, and if this week passes in vain, the window will close.
As a result, yes, with this lineup of pro-European candidates, we might end up with two isolationists in the final, the assumed successor of Georgescu and Victor Ponta.