This week marks the beginning of the 2.0 presidential electoral campaign, the outcome of which we will find out on May 18, along with the name of the future President of Romania.
We are not entering this last stretch with many certainties, quite the contrary. Until these presidential elections, from November and May, the first round was more of a formality, because, every time, except for the year 2000, two major blocs confronted each other, PSD and anti-PSD, with candidates who were almost pre-qualified for the final from the start.
This time things are much more complicated for many reasons.
Both blocs have lost much of their strength, had weak, unrepresentative candidates, party machineries no longer have mobilizing power, parties are disconnected from the electorate. The hatred against them has generated a third block, extremely powerful and extremist.
Against it, an attempted unity was made, but even it is no longer united. Votes are fragmented, and qualification for the final is absolutely uncertain.
Based on the current percentages, noting that spectacular changes can occur at any time, it is quite probable that a place in the final on May 18 will be occupied by George Simion, as the beneficiary of the largest part of the orphan support for Călin Georgescu.
Except for major setbacks along the way, not unlikely given the inconsistency of the character, what can stop Simion is Călin Georgescu himself, specifically his interest in not having another crowned leader of the extremists. We have already detailed this aspect.
For the other place, at this moment, three candidates with real chances and fairly close percentages are competing: Crin Antonescu, Nicușor Dan, and Victor Ponta. Especially the first two seem to have entered into a competition of colossal eccentricities, which are not actually slips, but calculations.
Since qualifying for the final can be decided by a few percentage points, as it was on November 24, each one strives to gather every accessible vote.
Where Are the Votes Coming From?
Crin Antonescu, former PNL president, liberal until a few weeks ago, not only becomes intensely nationalist conservative but also acquires anti-European and highly questionable tones from the perspective of the rule of law.
A typical case is the appreciation shown to Dan Dungaciu, a voice at least eurosceptic, I would even say anti-European, currently dedicated to Trumpism, therefore antidemocratic at this moment, anti-Ukrainian, hence Putinist, a potential presidential candidate of the extremists.
In addition, Mr. Dungaciu is indicted by the DNA not for some obscure denunciation, but following a report from the Court of Accounts.
For Mr. Antonescu, Adrian Năstase would have been a good president of Romania, and Liviu Dragnea is a political victim.
Why these bewildering directions? Because Mr. Antonescu targets both the legacy of Călin Georgescu and the PSD electorate, where he has significant, absolutely predictable losses, as long as the party does not consider that it has a candidate, so he is somewhat free from political "contracts."
Mr. Antonescu knows he has nothing to gain from the electorate with European principles; he lost it back in 2012 and apparently does not bother to win it back, so he goes after accessible voting pools.
Nicușor Dan states that he would take Klaus Iohannis as an advisor, a statement later attributed to "spicy sauce." I believe it was calculated. Iohannis still has a hardcore nucleus of a few percentage points of supporters. They are few, but, in the end, they can make a difference in a close battle.
As the implicit message of continuity surely does not harm in certain institutions for some people who benefitted from the Iohannis regime.
We also note Nicușor Dan's reluctance to clearly speak about the desire to replace Marcel Ciolacu as Prime Minister, although, paradoxically, his supporters are convinced that he already has a decree prepared to appoint Ilie Bolojan. Furthermore, Mr. Dan repeatedly advances Cătălin Predoiu as Prime Minister, despised by his electorate.
These are clear messages to the coalition electorate. Predoiu's name is invoked to attract as much of the PNL as possible, the reservation towards Marcel Ciolacu sends the message to PSD that they have nothing to fear, a message that will become even more important if Nicușor Dan reaches the final, where the PSD electorate will make the difference.
Victor Ponta has a clear target. To gather Social Democrats wherever he finds them. And he finds them at Călin Georgescu, lost by PSD since last year, and those who do not want to vote for Antonescu.
He knows the party, knows which buttons to press, and has the advantage that, for now, he has nothing to lose.
With each controversial statement, Crin Antonescu and Nicușor Dan risk losing part of the already accumulated capital. They walk a tightrope, saying more, retracting, nuancing with an eye on the numbers. Ponta has nothing to lose at this stage. Each of his voters has this option precisely for what Ponta says and does, the more emphatic, the better.
His big problem will be in the final, if he gets there. The more he worries about this, the more difficult it will be to maintain his current line.
I would also note the continuous pressure on Elena Lasconi to withdraw so as not to hinder Nicușor Dan. I don't understand how she hinders him, more precisely what prevents each sympathizer of Mrs. Lasconi from reorienting towards Mr. Dan, even if Mrs. Lasconi is on the list.
Or should the electorate that Mr. Dan has not convinced and would not be able to convince still vote for him due to the lack of another option? For those who still believe in liberal democracy, this should be a scandalous intention. But who still believes?