Does Nicușor Dan have a chance to win the presidential elections? Yes! And it wouldn’t be excluded that after the initial moment of surprise, more or less feigned, even the traditional parties might ensure him, officially or discreetly, a path to Cotroceni.
Why? Because of the answer to the second question: does an independent president, regardless of his name, have a chance to change/reform/save etc Romania? Definitely not, in our constitutional architecture.
I have written numerous times, since the time when Nicușor Dan swore that he would stay at least one more term as the Mayor of the Capital, that a president who does not have control over a parliamentary political party is a decorative president, because beyond foreign policy and a very small number of appointments, a president does not have direct and exclusive powers in key areas.
Let's concretely consider the priorities announced by Nicușor Dan:
1. Anti-corruption and justice. The President appoints the heads of the prosecutors' offices only upon the proposal of the Minister of Justice. Therefore, the efficiency of the President depends on what the Ministry of Justice delivers. On the other hand, the Constitutional Court has already established that the President cannot refuse the Ministry of Justice's request to dismiss a chief prosecutor.
The President has no decision-making authority regarding the appointment of the leadership of the High Court of Cassation and Justice, his role being solely to verify the legality of the procedure, like a file with a rail or a string, so to speak.
He may preside over the meetings of the Superior Council of Magistracy, but does not participate in decisions. So, concretely, what could the independent President Nicușor Dan do?
2. The administrative capacity of the President is useful, as is general culture. But the one who does administration, the one who makes the institutions functional or not, is the Government invested by Parliament.
The President designates the Prime Minister, but the designation must be made, as the Constitutional Court states, in a way that can generate a majority.
Yes, the President can dissolve Parliament after at least two rejected Prime Ministers within 60 days, but a government can be invested only to be then sabotaged and quickly toppled. In turn, Parliament can also suspend the President.
So, concretely, what could the independent President Nicușor Dan do for functional institutions?
3. Studies and strategies are just paperwork, there have been presidential commissions at Cotroceni on education and health. Mircea Miclea's project was exceptional for education, it even became a law, from which nothing much resulted.
So, an independent president would be extremely convenient for traditional political parties, which he has minimal chances of disturbing.
Will the people support him and put pressure alongside him? For how long? Until the terraces open or until the pig is slaughtered? People do not have much patience. They vote for a person to be able to, not to explain why they can't.
In short, voting for an independent candidate is an implicit and not necessarily conscious one for a parliamentary regime. Which can be perfectly fine, most European democracies are parliamentary republics.
But this change should be the result of an assumed, informed vote, not shoved through the back door in the shadow of the illusion of an independent candidate.
Regardless of how broad the partisan support for Nicușor Dan may be, essential for his reign is not only to maintain the illusion of the savior, but also to prove appeal to the electorate in small urban and rural areas.
It is unlikely that mayors will go all out for an independent candidate. But even if they do, the elections this fall have shown that the paradigm has shifted, and the party machines' mobilization capacity has greatly decreased.
In addition, there are a few other issues to note regarding Nicușor Dan's candidacy.
1. The biggest loser is USR, the most important supporter of Mr. Dan at PMB, the only one who had a certain candidate for the presidential elections.
The fight has already begun within USR between the supporters of Nicușor and the Lasconi camp, which, regardless of the outcome, will result in political casualties.
If PNL, as I expect, will go, at least officially, with Nicușor Dan, possibly in exchange for supporting Ciprian Ciucu for the general mayorship, USR, which is now leaning towards the Opposition, will be left offside.
And amazingly faithfully, the 2020 episode will be repeated, when Nicușor Dan outmaneuvered the competition with Vlad Voiculescu for the USR candidacy for the Mayor of the Capital with the help of PNL.
2. It is still remarkable to prepare to leave PMB not only after securing a new term with the argument that only now will you truly stir things up, not only after saying that no thought of a candidacy until you resolve what you started in Bucharest for another term or even two, but also after calling people to a referendum for centralizing decision-making and funds in your hands.
3. After the elections took place and were annulled under the sign of Russian intrusion and danger, it is quite amusing that pro-European anti-Russians have a candidate who is a friend of an avowed admirer of Putin, with huge businesses in the ex-Soviet space, as the press has repeatedly reported. I'm thinking that our "Russians" are no better than "theirs". Or are they?