The Kremlin’s spokesperson, Dmitry Peskov, stated that NATO countries are already „at war” with Russia due to the military support provided to Ukraine. And NATO has made it clear that it is ready to defend every inch of allied territory after Russian military planes violated Estonian airspace last week. Does this mean NATO is already at war with Russia? It depends.
Russia has been waging a hybrid war against the West for several years – cyber-attacks, sabotage, disinformation campaigns, and even placing bombs on transport planes are all distinctive signs of the Kremlin’s persistent efforts to undermine NATO’s unity without triggering a full-scale war.
The recent shameful violations of NATO airspace by Russia, including the "unprecedented" drone attack on Poland, represent a clear escalation by Moscow, which has led to the activation of Article 4 of NATO on two occasions but has prevented the implementation of Article 5, the alliance's collective defense clause.
However, while NATO and Europe are responding to these threats below the threshold of open war, Russia sees things very differently.
The Kremlin says is already fighting with NATO
"There is ample evidence to suggest that (Russian President Vladimir) Putin already considers this a war," said Ed Arnold, a senior researcher at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), to Kyiv Independent.
This was clarified on September 15 when Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stated that by providing military assistance to Ukraine, NATO countries are "at war" with Moscow. "NATO is at war with Russia; this is obvious and does not require evidence. NATO provides direct and indirect support to the regime in Kiev," he said.
According to Ed Arnold, Putin sees the war in Ukraine "as existential for both his regime and the survival of Russia as a state." "So, if that's the case, it's pretty clear that Russia is saying 'we are at war.' But in Europe, it is more considered that this can be managed. It's about deterrence, not defense."
However, this difference of opinion could lead to what NATO is trying to avoid - further escalation.
NATO speaks the language of the Russians
NATO's response to Russia's repeated violations of its airspace has been the launch of the Eastern Sentry mission, a slight increase in air patrols along its eastern flank, and the issuance of several stern statements.
On September 23, NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte stated on Tuesday at a press conference that the alliance is "prepared and determined to defend every inch of allied territory" after Russian military planes violated Estonian airspace last week.
The statements came following the meeting of the North Atlantic Council, where the Russian incursion into Estonia was discussed, as well as recent incidents in Denmark and Norway. "Russia should have no doubts: NATO and the allies will use, in accordance with international law, all military and non-military tools necessary to defend ourselves and to deter all threats from all directions," the North Atlantic Council's statement said.
The NATO Chief reiterated his commitment to Article 5 and stated that the response to further violations will be "robust," adding: "We will continue to respond in the manner, timing, and domain of our choosing."
However, experts consulted by Kyiv Independent do not see signs that Russia is deterred.
Moscow does not back down
"A large part of NATO's response is influenced by the fact that European countries want to avoid escalation with Russia," said Alex Kokcharov, a geo-economic analyst for Russia, Eastern Europe, and Central Asia. "And everything we've learned about the Putin government is that it operates differently and sees this as a weakness, which is actually an invitation to more Russian actions and bolder Russian actions."
NATO countries - especially those bordering Russia - are sounding the alarm that Moscow is likely to further escalate and is willing to risk a more direct confrontation with NATO.
"We must acknowledge that Russia, overall, is prepared for escalation," said the Ministry of Defense of Latvia in a statement. "Although Latvia and NATO are not currently facing any direct military threats, we cannot exclude the risk of provocations, sabotage, or incidents escalating. We need to consider this and be prepared today."
Lithuania's Ministry of Defense told Kyiv Independent that actions such as multiple drone violations of NATO airspace, which could "cause casualties," are a clear sign that the Kremlin "accepts the risk of further escalation with the alliance."
But Estonia went a step further. "The message must be unequivocal. Future violations will be met with a response, including, if necessary, the interception and downing of intruding aircraft," said Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna to the same publication.
How Russia can be restrained
The issue is that there currently seems to be no wider interest among NATO members for such actions. However, experts suggest that this is what needs to be done to make Russia stop.
But if NATO is not prepared to respond directly to Russia, there is another option - to respond in Ukraine, experts believe.
Matthew Savill, Director of Military Sciences at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), stated that Russia constantly conducts a cost-benefit analysis as it seeks to achieve its strategic objectives against NATO.
"European defense spending, defense capabilities, and support for Ukraine could increase to such an extent that Russia might say, 'Yes, we need to stop here with spending.' And Russia wouldn't hit directly, but it could make a profit and loss calculation and decide it's enough," he explained to Kyiv Independent.
T.D.