Four days ago we published an article about the dynamics of peace negotiations in Ukraine which ended with the following paragraph: „In the following days it will be interesting to watch Putin’s reaction. Will the Kremlin leader allow Trump to withdraw from negotiations? In my opinion, the danger for the Russian president is so great that he will oppose. We will see how”.
The article was titled: „Trump’s withdrawal from peace negotiations, bad news for Putin and good for Zelenski. The American president’s fear of failure” and referred to the fact that the Russian leader will do everything possible to keep the American president in the game in order to manipulate him, to buy time, while waiting for a favorable situation.
Favorable situations for Putin include possible disagreements within the European Union, a major political crisis in Ukraine, a military conflict in another area that would halt military aid to Ukraine, an economic crisis in Europe and the USA, etc.
Poland and the Baltic states must understand, although they do not understand, that in the event of aggression by the North Atlantic Alliance against the Union of Russia and Belarus, damages will be provoked, of course, to the entire NATO bloc, but the first to suffer will be the bearers of such ideas, the bearers from the political circles of Poland and the Baltic states.
Sergei Naryshkin, Head of the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service
The Kremlin leader will not withdraw from Ukraine and will not cease fire unless he can present himself in Red Square with a victory, meaning a change of political regime in Kiev, keeping the conquered territories and their recognition, plus blocking Ukraine's accession to NATO.
Rubio withdraws again
On the other hand, Vladimir Putin also desires a temporary ceasefire to be able to rebuild his military forces, but he is undecided, caught between threatening tendencies:
- He doesn't know if a pause in the war will help Ukraine more than Russia, especially since the United Kingdom and the European Union will continue to support Kiev intensively with weapons, military technology, and money;
- He doesn't know if the ceasefire period will lead to internal tensions due to the increasingly low standard of living in Russia, the pressure of tens of thousands of injured soldiers returning from the front, and the families affected by the loss of loved ones in the war.
For Vladimir Putin, it's a complicated situation, the Russian leader being only advantaged by an extension of peace negotiations conducted exclusively with the USA, which should be as challenging as possible, with many steps forward and backward, and where he can induce increased pressure on Volodymyr Zelensky.
"Secretary of State Marco Rubio has decided... to withdraw from the next stage of ceasefire negotiations in Ukraine because Zelensky rejected one of President Trump's key proposals for a deal to stop fighting with Russia," an article published by the "New York Times" on April 23 states.
"Negotiators from the United States, Europe, and Ukraine will still meet on Wednesday in London to continue drafting a ceasefire proposal. However, developments represent a double blow, raising new questions about progress towards ending the war," write journalists from the cited publication.
Crimea belongs to Ukraine
Earlier this week, several diplomatic sources announced that US negotiators and those from the Kremlin had reached an agreement validated by Vladimir Putin, in which Russia would keep the territories already conquered on the condition that the US, the European Union, and Ukraine officially recognize the Crimean Peninsula as part of Russia.
"There is nothing to discuss about this. It violates our Constitution," stated Volodymyr Zelensky, reacting to the conditions demanded by Russia.
Crimea "is our territory, the territory of the Ukrainian people... As soon as discussions begin about Crimea and sovereign territories, negotiations enter the format desired by Russia - prolonging the war - as it will not be possible to quickly reach an agreement on these matters...," stated the Ukrainian president.
Thus, a deadlock has once again been established. Rubio's withdrawal from the discussions in the UK is a way to put pressure on Ukraine and the European Union, but the situation has changed significantly since the strange episode at the White House, when Trump and Vance sought to politically compromise Zelensky.
After 100 days in office, the American president is plummeting in terms of public support regarding the economy. His decisions endanger the US economy, and experts speak of a possible recession.
The US, playing a strange role
The euphoria of the election victory has faded, and Trump, surrounded by an incompetent government team in many areas, needs a win to relaunch his mandate.
Now, time is running in favor of Ukraine, the UK, and the European Union, determined to stop Russia's expansionist tendencies. The major problem created by the American administration is that it did not involve those affected by Russia's invasion in the peace negotiations.
Rubio has taken on the strange role of communicating to Kiev, London, and Brussels what Putin wants, that is, what the aggressor is aiming for.
With such a mechanism, it is impossible to reach an understanding. Whatever messages special envoy Witkoff and Rubio bring from Moscow, if accepted by Zelensky, would be seen in Ukraine as a concession, as a defeat.
The issue is even more complicated because the head of the US State Department has enough political experience to understand the situation, but complies due to the pressures exerted by Donald Trump and the backroom agreements he has with Putin.
The leader of the US, despite leading the world's most powerful military, no longer has enough authority after the chaos he has created in the three months since returning to the White House.
Time is running out
Thus, whatever is agreed over the phone with Putin can no longer be implemented.
Both Europe and Canada, Australia, as well as China, have created or are on the verge of creating protection mechanisms against Trump's surprising and shocking decisions and actions.
Negotiations between the US and Russia on a ceasefire in Ukraine are heavily skewed in favor of the Kremlin. Putin knows this and has pursued it deliberately.
His surprise and not just his was the rapid collapse of Donald Trump's mandate. The Russian president was counting on the power of the American leader to bend Zelensky's will, forcing him to accept the Kremlin's conditions, but Trump's superficiality worked in all directions, shattering even Putin's hopes.
At this moment, Moscow is trying to keep Washington in negotiations, to continue to exclude Kiev, hoping to gain time, but there are times when time no longer has patience, as the writer Marin Preda so inspiringly observed in another century and at another turning point in history.