Political messages cannot be clearer than the Russian missiles that hit an American company in western Ukraine on Wednesday night, hundreds of kilometers from the front line. The attack, part of the most intense bombardments in the last month, showed Moscow’s diplomatic deadlock and the abrupt halt to peace efforts led by President Donald Trump.
A week after Trump warmly welcomed Putin in Alaska, the reality on the ground remains unchanged. Russia continues to bomb Ukrainian civilians and erect new barriers to a quick peace, while Washington claims concessions that do not exist.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov uses Soviet delaying tactics and seeks to deepen the fissures between the US and Europe, according to a CNN analysis.
Zelenski caught between Trump and Putin
President Volodymyr Zelensky tries to appear open to Trump's proposals but cannot accept the "poisoned peace" offered by Putin. Ceding strategic territories in Donbas would pave the way for a new offensive on Kyiv.
Although he avoided a new scandal at the White House visit, Zelensky remains stuck: he must maintain American support without legitimizing Kremlin's claims.
European leaders displayed unity in Washington, trying to separate Trump from Putin. However, their security guarantees plan for Ukraine remains vague and depends on the US.
For such a scheme to work, France and the UK would need to be willing to go to war with Russia, with American support. However, the scenario seems unrealistic.
Trump, between the role of mediator and the temptation of concessions
Trump has the unique advantage of being able to speak to both sides and convene world leaders in Washington, but his impulsive style and tendency to lean towards Putin undermine negotiations. Although he did not force Ukraine to surrender, critics say he offers concessions to the Kremlin without demanding flexibility in return. "We are still far from a peace agreement," warned Secretary of State Marco Rubio.
Trump suggests that American troops could participate in a reassurance force in Ukraine; he immediately changes his mind under pressure from his own electorate. In another statement, he implied support for Ukrainian attacks on Russian territory: "It's very hard to win a war without attacking the invading country," he wrote on social media.
Russia symbolically targets American sites
Wednesday night, Russia killed nine civilians and attacked with 574 drones and 40 rockets, including in Lviv, near the Polish border.
Among the targets was the American factory Flex Ltd., where 19 people were injured. "We believe it was a deliberate attack on American investments," said Zelensky.
Trump, the "president of peace" in the White House's vision
The White House insists that Trump's victory has brought a chance for peace: "There may finally be light at the end of the tunnel because Trump is the president of peace," said spokesperson Karoline Leavitt.
However, experts warn that mistaken assessments of the Russian position and premature concessions make the process deadlocked.
Although Trump initially talked about a quick ceasefire, after discussions with Putin, he changed his position, adopting Moscow's perspective: first a final agreement, then a ceasefire.
Meanwhile, Lavrov proposes "talks between expert ministers" to postpone a real summit. Russia gains time on the front, and Ukraine and Europe cannot decide alone.
All eyes remain on Trump.