The United States economy is not at risk of entering a recession, despite the $11 billion losses caused by the longest government shutdown in history, according to Trump administration officials.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated on NBC that although the 43-day partial federal government shutdown resulted in a severe economic loss, the outlook remains strong due to decreasing interest rates and scheduled tax cuts for 2026.
He specified that some credit-sensitive sectors have entered a technical recession, but "the overall economy is not in danger of negative growth."
Bessent attributed inflation to costs in the services sector, not to the trade tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump, and anticipated that energy price decreases will temper price increases in the coming months.
The comments come against the backdrop of a visible slowdown in the manufacturing industry and consumer frustration with high prices, according to a University of Michigan survey. However, Bessent maintained that the administration "has laid the groundwork for strong and non-inflationary economic growth in 2026."
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U.S. Economy Resilient
Among the changes aimed at boosting real incomes for the population, the official listed capping overtime taxes, reducing tip taxes, and certain exceptions to social contributions. Additionally, Bessent said that Americans will receive "substantial tax refunds" in the first quarter of 2026 following the new tax changes.
National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett stated on Fox News that 2026 will be "an exceptional year," although he warned that the last quarter of this year will experience a "stumble" due to the government shutdown. He estimates a modest growth between 1.5% and 2% before the economy accelerates again.
In addition to eliminating tariffs on certain food imports, such as coffee and bananas, the Trump administration is preparing a new initiative to reduce healthcare costs without providing details yet.
The longest U.S. government shutdown in history ended on Wednesday after the enactment of a law ensuring funding until January 30, but setting the stage for a possible political showdown between Republicans and Democrats early next year.
Simultaneously, administration officials emphasized that a series of new trade agreements and the opening of factories will further support the economy in 2026.