Donald Trump has promised to impose taxes on imported goods, a key element of his economic agenda for a second presidential term. China will suffer the most, but other countries, including US allies, will also be affected.
The President-elect of the United States has committed to using tariffs to boost American businesses, announcing customs duties of up to 60% on Chinese goods and up to 20% on imports from other countries.
Although all tariff policies will require approval from Congress, many economists have already begun to estimate the impact these taxes will have on the global market, as reported by Newsweek.
Some scenarios suggest that Europe could suffer more than China. An estimate published by the Financial Times and Allianz Trade indicates that Europe would be most severely affected in a "limited trade war" where the US would increase tariffs on China to 25% for half of non-essential goods imports and to 5% for the rest of the world, excluding Canada and Mexico.
According to this scenario, European states are projected to lose a total of $38.6 billion in 2025 and 2026, compared to China's losses of $34.2 billion.
The situation would look different in a "full-blown trade war" scenario, with tariffs of 60% on Chinese goods and 10% on all other nations. China is estimated to lose a total of $125.3 billion in 2025 and 2026, more than all of Europe, which would lose $124.8 billion.
"The main impact will be on the targets of these tariffs, such as China and, in general, on countries that export the most to the US. Among them is Germany, for cars manufactured outside the US. BMW produces a lot of cars in South Carolina, but tariffs could target the parts," said Patrick Dine, CEO of consultancy firm PSD Global, to the American publication.
According to analysts, in this scenario, China and many Asian countries will suffer the most.
The United States is the second-largest importer of goods and the largest importer of services in the world.
In 2022, the US imported goods worth a total of $3.2 trillion and services worth $680.3 billion, according to the US Trade Policy Bureau.
In the same year, the top five suppliers to the US for goods imports were:
- China - $536.3 billion;
- Mexico - $454.8 billion;
- Canada - $436.6 billion;
- Japan - $148.1 billion;
- Germany - $146.6 billion.
Goods imports from the 27 EU member states amounted to $553.3 billion.
American services imports from the 27 EU member states combined were $166.7 billion.
According to the 2021 report from the US Bureau of Technological Assessment, the majority of American imports from China include:
- machinery and mechanical appliances - 47.7%
- various manufactured articles - 13.5%
- chemicals, plastics, rubber, and leather products - 10.5%
In contrast, most goods imported into the US from the European Union consist of medicinal and pharmaceutical products, followed by motor vehicles and drugs, according to the Eurostat 2023 report.