There is a solid clue that Putin is pursuing a path to resolve the conflict in Ukraine. Shortly after returning from Alaska, he gathered a number of officials, including Dmitri Medvedev, former prime minister and president of Russia, Sergei Naryshkin, head of intelligence, Valery Gerasimov, chief of the General Staff, Sergei Lavrov, Foreign Minister, and others, to whom he said that „…in my opinion, we are approaching the necessary solutions…”
The meeting took place in the same room where, three and a half years ago, Putin gathered his security council members to ask them if they agreed that the Ukrainian regime is fascist and threatens Russia’s stability.
In reality, it was the prologue to the invasion, a public relations action through which Putin created formal support for his decision to start the war.
The short video segment released by the Kremlin press office after the Alaska summit ends with Putin's announcement that he will present in detail all the discussions he had with the American president.
We, of course, respect the position of the American administration, which considers it necessary to end hostilities as soon as possible. And we want this too and want to move on to resolving all issues through peaceful means. The discussion was very sincere and substantive.
Vladimir Putin, President of Russia, statement to the Security Council, after the Alaska summit
The entire staging, the symmetry of the two meetings, separated by three and a half years of war and the loss of over a million Russian soldiers, dead or severely wounded, represents a rare signal that Vladimir Putin is seeking to end the conflict.
The Victor
The meeting in Alaska, with a Donald Trump who rolled out the red carpet for Vladimir Putin, indicted by the International Criminal Court for war crimes, sparked a wave of protests and criticism against the American president, but the situation created offered Putin the opportunity to present himself to Russians as a strong leader, who challenges Trump, the commander of the world's largest military force.
If to such an image is added a number of conquered territories, occupied by Kremlin forces, Putin's status as a victor cannot be contested by anyone in Russia.
It's hard to say whether Donald Trump and his advisers devised a strategy of playing dumb to offer Putin a way to appear as a victor or whether the Russian leader, from his previous experiences in meetings with Trump, all of which were image disasters for the American president, speculated on the opportunity to be in his vicinity in order to gain an advantage and also to appear as a victor in front of the Russians.
Regardless, from the meeting held at the Kremlin, it emerged that Putin has achieved his goal and will proceed with ceasefire negotiations.
"We discussed almost all areas of our cooperation. But above all, we discussed, of course, a possible resolution of the Ukrainian crisis on a fair basis. And, of course, we had the opportunity to discuss the causes of this crisis," Putin stated at the meeting with Kremlin representatives.
"Eliminating these root causes should form the basis of the resolution. We have not had discussions at this level for a long time. I repeat, we had the opportunity to once again calmly and in detail express our position," added the Russian president.
The Russians Are Tired of War
It is very difficult to overcome the Kremlin's censorship barrier to see and analyze the economic and social situation in Russia. But fragmented information, short video clips, and figures periodically emerge, piecing together a not-so-rosy picture of life there.
Drone raids launched by Ukraine, sabotage operations carried out on Russian soil, and aerial attacks have caused damage to refineries, airfields, ammunition depots, and transportation infrastructure.
Moreover, all Kremlin investments are directed towards the arms industry, with healthcare and education systems being neglected.
Periodically, there are shortages in fuel supply, certain foods, and prices continue to rise.
"70% of Russians believe that their country has been successful on the battlefield. At the same time, 60% are now in favor of peace negotiations. The fear of defeat has long disappeared, but there is not much desire to continue the fighting," an article published by "The Economist" states.
Vladimir Putin is a former KGB officer, trained as a spy, and a secret agent cannot be indifferent to information.
Because he wants to survive in power, the Russian leader realizes that the popular enthusiasm resources for war have been depleted, and now is the time to find a way out.
A Huge Price, a Victory Without Glory
The US and European states will not soon recognize the occupied territories as belonging to Russia, but that does not mean there is no pressure on Volodymyr Zelensky to accept the existing situation and strengthen military defenses along the current front line.
For example, French President Emmanuel Macron has taken an active role, verbally attacking Putin, conveying the message that Europe is not afraid and will not make major compromises in front of Russia.
And Ukrainians are tired of war. Signals from the public suggest finding solutions to cease fire and stop human losses.
Negotiations will be tough, Russia's demands will be maximal - blocking Ukraine's entry into NATO, limiting military aid to Kiev, without EU peacekeeping troops, and many more, but Putin does not have many levers to impose them.
From the information so far, there is a possibility to establish a period, a number of years in which Ukraine will remain militarily neutral, but in exchange for security guarantees.
Once Putin has taken the first step, it means he is willing to make compromises, and through the door left ajar by the Russian president, European leaders can slip in, intending to turn the neighboring country into a military fortress to keep Russia away from the EU.
But a ceasefire does not mean that Vladimir Putin has calmed down, that he will not try to take political control of the neighboring country, or that he will leave Moldova and the collective West, as he calls it, in peace.
It will only be a change in strategy that will quickly lead to an intensification of hybrid warfare, one in which, at least until now, Putin has had more success than in conventional war.
Weeks of probing and negotiations lie ahead, while both Ukraine and Russia will try to inflict as much damage as possible on the opponent until a possible ceasefire.
With all the territories gained, a land connection to the Crimean Peninsula, and a victor status in front of the Russians, the price paid by Putin is a huge one.
Even if hidden for a while, the military defeat in front of Ukraine, political isolation, economic dependence on China, and turning Europe into an armed adversary will come to light and have dramatic effects on Russia, while the Kremlin's proclaimed victory will shatter.