Sorin Grindeanu, the president of PSD, had every reason to be concerned when Cristian Anton, the director of the Romanian Road Authority, was detained by DNA prosecutors. The two are extremely close – Anton was Grindeanu’s chief of staff during his time as Minister of Transport, and they have known each other for over two decades.
When prosecutors announced that Anton had 500,000 euros hidden in his apartment, it was a clear danger signal for Grindeanu: investigators had entered his comfort zone. Let’s not forget that the PSD leader also faces the issue of his association with the Nordis company, which illegally sold luxury apartments to several individuals, causing damages of hundreds of thousands of euros.
The tense legal situation around him is prompting Grindeanu to make decisions that cannot be explained solely through the lens of political strategy.
At this moment, Sorin Grindeanu is more concerned about the safety of his own career, being more worried about being involved in a corruption scandal than about the fate of the party.
The race against time that the PSD leader is running through the party branches is publicly reflected in an irritating and incoherent discourse: the coalition protocol must be renegotiated, he no longer supports Ilie Bolojan, a new prime minister is needed, and the PSD can no longer accept being ignored by the other governing partners.
Trapped in a Dilemma
The situation within the PSD must be viewed in a broader context, where two distinct problems overlap: on one hand, the issue of the political figure Sorin Grindeanu, threatened by the specter of possible investigations and associations in corruption scandals; on the other hand, a deep concern - both at the leadership level and among local leaders - regarding the immediate future of the social-democratic party.
Traian Băsescu, former President of Romania
It's very difficult for me, I say it honestly, it's very difficult for me to understand what drives Grindeanu, from morning till night, to want to plunge into a political crisis, trying to force the government's downfall. I don't understand what motivates him.
The PSD is somewhat caught in a dilemma. If it remains in power, it must make a number of major compromises in relation to its political actions so far, accepting reforms, staff reductions in public administration, job cuts, all of which are extremely unpopular measures among an electorate largely composed of those revolving around party figures holding positions in public administration, beneficiaries of an oversized bureaucratic system.
On the other hand, leaving the government would actually mean entering completely uncharted territory for the PSD, that of the opposition.
AUR, the party with 35-38% in recent polls, poses a formidable challenge to the PSD, which will not be willing to associate with the party led by Sorin Grindeanu or lose voters. The social democrats are halfway in terms of public support compared to AUR.
Anti-PSD Sentiment in AUR's DNA
Realistically speaking, the PSD is facing its toughest situation since the transformation of the FSN into a political party in 1990.
Leaving the government entails an immediate loss of privileges and, most likely, the removal of many party members from key positions in the state administration - a move that will significantly impact the party's development, linked to public resources.
Moreover, in opposition, the PSD would directly face AUR. Anti-PSD sentiment is ingrained in AUR's DNA, the extremist and populist party is built on an anti-PSD message, and over 60–65% of the Romanian electorate now perceives the PSD as a corrupt party that has held Romania back for decades.
AUR will exploit this label in opposition, aiming to attract mayors and voters from the PSD to AUR, in view of the 2028 local elections, posing another major threat to the PSD.
Grindeanu's tour through party branches has highlighted a great deal of frustration among local leaders, as well as a fear of the elections in over two years.
Sorin Grindeanu, PSD president
...not even one person, in the six regional meetings, said we should continue in this form. That says something. This doesn't mean we won't choose this. It involves possible other scenarios. A reconfiguration within this governing coalition, but that doesn't depend solely on us...
Although many of them cry out that they want to go into opposition, in reality, the message represents another trap for Grindeanu. Upon leaving the government, the first thing that will happen is a crisis within the party followed by a challenge to the leader.
Reform in PSD, Only a Theoretical Possibility
The strongest voices calling for a shift to the opposition - namely Olguța Vasilescu and Gabriela Firea - are actually concealing a strategy to change Grindeanu, which would give them the opportunity to take over the party leadership, banking on a totally uncertain collaboration with AUR.
In reality, launching a process of absorption of the PSD into the populist party, still led by George Simion.
AUR will most likely avoid, programmatically, any association with the PSD before the 2028 local elections.
Such an alliance would erode their public support - probably dropping from 38% to below 25 - because the image of the PSD, associated with corruption, cannot be dissolved, no matter how populist, extremist, nationalist, and religious the discourse of a possible AUR-PSD alliance might be.
Sorin Grindeanu's situation is extremely complicated at this moment: on one hand, threatened by the direction the DNA prosecutors' investigations may take, now targeting one of his closest collaborators; on the other hand, crushed between two decisions, one worse than the other.
The PSD's strategy of creating opposition within the coalition has paradoxically boosted the popularity of Ilie Bolojan, who has a public support of 25%, according to recent opinion polls.
Grindeanu is somewhere around half that percentage, below the party's overall percentage. Furthermore, there are sufficient signals from some AUR leaders that the populist party could support, under certain conditions, a minority government led by Bolojan.
The PSD is at a crossroads, and the only path to survival would entail an internal reform unlike anything it has ever done before, a generational change, modernization, and Europeanization of the party. But such a scenario is hard to envision.