Even if Donald Trump ends the conflict in Iran and even if the US allies stay away from this conflict, they will not be spared from the consequences of war. Hundreds of millions of people, from Asia to Europe and from Africa to the Middle East, did not vote for him and have no say in what he does. Nevertheless, his decisions profoundly change their lives.
Donald Trump seems to be gearing up to escape the war in Iran and is warning US allies who have not joined his military campaign that they will bear the consequences, notes CNN.
"Go and take your oil!" he angrily wrote on Truth Social. The American television station later learned from sources that the US administration cannot promise to restore free navigation through the Strait of Hormuz before declaring the mission accomplished.
The President later predicted that the war would "end" in two to three weeks. "We will have nothing to do with what happens in the strait," he told reporters in the Oval Office.
Ending the war with Iran controlling the Strait of Hormuz would be seen internationally as a strategic defeat for the United States, CNN emphasizes.
Iran would certainly claim victory and could consider that it has restored a deterrent factor for future attacks.
And it would likely try to monetize its new position by imposing fees on tankers transiting the route. This would provide revenue for rebuilding military, missile, and even nuclear programs destroyed by American and Israeli airstrikes.
All of this would test Trump's ability to turn almost everything he does into a victory. But it could still be a preferable goal for the White House leader - any attempt to reopen the strait by force would risk massive losses in the US and prolong the war in a way that would further undermine his already eroded political authority domestically, according to the source cited.
In these circumstances, two important ideas stand out:
- Even Trump cannot escape the consequences of his decisions.
- Even if he stops the war, the rest of the world will pay the price.
Recession Will Rush Over Trump
Abandoning the situation in the Middle East could leave the world in chaos. But it would be in line with the action imposed by Trump, for the following reasons:
- The Trump administration has proven more efficient in destroying systems than in building new ones.
- Exiting the war would extend the "America First" principle, according to which the country should always act within the limits of its national interests.
- It would satisfy Trump's anger towards NATO allies whom he accuses of taking advantage of American security guarantees.
The issue is that America does not operate in a vacuum defined by Trump's rhetoric. However favorably he may interpret the exit from the war, it is unlikely that markets will be as easily convinced.
"Even though the United States is the world's leading oil producer, this does not insulate American consumers from oil prices, as oil prices are global," Rosemary Kelanic, the Middle East studies program director at Defense Priorities, told CNN on Tuesday. "So, everyone in the United States and everyone in the world is affected by this supply shock."
This economic blow threatens to trigger a global recession that could hit the shores of the US, perhaps just a few months before the midterm elections (in November), where Democrats hope to secure a significant victory to rein in Trump's power in a second term.
The Price Europe Would Pay
More broadly, the war in Iran now has another threatening consequence: an even deeper fracture in the transatlantic alliance.
This would only underline the need for European allies to invest more in their own armies, aware that the security umbrella created by America after World War II has become uncertain.
Allied leaders are learning, in the unpredictable era of Trump, that they can no longer rely on US security guarantees, as the American president seems to condition them on a general support for his actions.
Trump has put these leaders in an impossible position after a year in which he criticized, mocked, and threatened them. Europeans have not forgotten the red lines that the US leader has crossed: his demands for Denmark to hand over Greenland, tariff attacks, and disdain for the sacrifices of America's friends in the wars after September 11.
High energy prices and rising inflation threaten to crush fragile economies and have political consequences among the electorate on the already weakened centrist governments in Europe.
In some EU countries, discussions are already underway about rationing gasoline and diesel. At the same time, there are fears that a collapse of the central government's authority in Tehran could trigger another massive exodus of refugees to the EU borders.
On the other hand, it is hard to believe that these countries can simply - as Trump said - procure their own oil. Without US support, there is no chance that NATO powers can unlock the strait and keep it open. Even the mighty US Navy currently considers it too dangerous to venture into the range of Iranian drones and missiles.
US Wants More. But Who Bears the Cost?
As always with Trump, it is wise not to take everything he says ad litteram, CNN reminds. Signs that the US may give up on the war emerged a day after he warned that he would destroy Iranian power plants and even desalination facilities in a violent escalation of the war if Tehran does not meet his demands for peace.
"I think efforts are still being made to prevent these misunderstandings with the United States regarding Iran from causing a permanent rupture in the transatlantic relationship," Stephen Flanagan, former senior director for defense policy and strategy at the National Security Council, said at a Middle East Institute press conference on Tuesday. "But this has become more difficult every day, given Trump's vehement criticisms of how the Europeans have reacted so far."
"(Trump) emphasizes that this is an international waterway that we use less than most; in fact, much less than most. So, the world should be careful and be prepared to stand up," Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said on Tuesday.
But Europe is not eager to be dragged into another American war in the Middle East.
"What does (…) Donald Trump expect, one or two hands of European frigates in the Strait of Hormuz, something that not even the powerful American Navy can do?" German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said last month. "This is not our war; we did not start it," he emphasized.
This position will not spare allies from the consequences of the war - a reality that reflects what is becoming a defining feature of Trump's second term.
Hundreds of millions of people, from Asia to Europe and from Africa to the Middle East, did not vote for him and have no say in what he does. Nevertheless, his decisions profoundly change their lives, concludes CNN.
T.D.