The decision of the Constitutional Court, although coming after much scandal and many suspicions, was predictable even though the recount was not completed, as the purpose of the initiative was delay, not cancellation. The arguments were presented by the President of the Constitutional Court, I will not reiterate them, they do not even matter, I would just point out that the hysteria about the coup, the coup d’état only helped the extremists. If it was a damaging radicalization trap, many fell into it with noise.
With the validation of the first round completed, the timeline for the final round can move forward.
What's next?
Theoretically, the alignment of the final round is Europeanism versus Russia, Euro-Atlantic membership versus affiliation with Moscow. If it were so in practice, considering the overwhelmingly pro-EU and pro-NATO orientation of Romanians, things would be very clear and predictable.
However, in practice, the situation is much more complicated, for several reasons. And the most important one is shifting the front to another line: progressivism versus conservatism.
Călin Georgescu starts with 3,401,726 votes, his and those of George Simion from the first round. We should not expect a significant loss from those who realize they voted for someone who spouts nonsense that even questions a psychiatric diagnosis.
The score of AUR – POT - SOS on December 1 is only 4 percentage points lower than that of November 24, with almost similar turnout, percentages that could belong to voters from the PSD and PNL base who did not vote for their own candidates but returned to them for the parliamentary elections.
Elena Lasconi starts with 1,772,500 of her own votes from the first round, to which a portion of the 416,000 votes of the Hungarians can be added, who were urged by Kelemen Hunor not to vote for extremism (is he still Russia's man or have we finished with that nonsense?).
However, this does not mean that some of them may prefer to stay home, especially considering the extremely ill-advised statements made by Mrs. Lasconi about declaring Viktor Orban persona non grata.
The liberal dilemma
Ilie Bolojan firmly announced, unequivocally and unconditionally, his support for Mrs. Lasconi immediately after the first round. But it is a question of how many liberals will follow this call. We have seen that liberals did not massively support even their own candidate.
It is possible that some liberals will lean towards Elena Lasconi, but the party has a very strong conservative core, especially in Transylvania, where there are strong neo-Protestant liberal communities. This segment is bombarded with persistent propaganda regarding LGBTQ rights, parent 1 - parent 2, and the concessions that Elena Lasconi would be willing to make.
Obviously, the discussion is not really about same-sex marriage, as the ECHR decision only imposes a legal framework for such couples, adoption is still possible, but not at the couple level, but by a single, unmarried person, regardless of their sexual orientation, but the truth often cannot harm a persistent lie.
And Mrs. Lasconi, although conservative herself, with large crosses around her neck, a practicing Orthodox, even ostentatiously so, and a participant in the referendum for the traditional family, could not make statements to please the conservatives because she would lose her progressive electorate. It is a major vulnerability.
Moreover, when it comes to misogyny, the PNL has major issues. Let's not forget that they were left without a list for the Chamber of Deputies in the diaspora because they were unable to include a woman on it.
The key lies with the PSD
But the largest electoral base, which can decide the future president, is that of the PSD. The party leadership did not issue, predictably, a call to vote and, even if they had or, highly unlikely, will, it is unlikely that it would have a decisive impact. Why?
For the PSD base, the same arguments apply as for PNL voters. The PSD base is conservative, traditionalist, implicitly misogynistic, nationalist, interspersed with radical Orthodox and neo-Protestant communities, hence an electorate that naturally gravitates towards Călin Georgescu in competition with Elena Lasconi.
To this is added the resentment for the statements made by the USR towards the Social Democrats, including in the last week, in the context of the recount, when the USR and Elena Lasconi should have refrained from attacking those whose votes they need.
All this reasoning is confirmed by Sunday's CURS survey, which shows Călin Georgescu with a clear advantage.
If Mrs. Lasconi commits to appointing a PSD prime minister, Marcel Ciolacu, she could somewhat motivate the support of the PSD electorate for the second round, but the risk is to implicitly disavow everything she has supported so far and what has brought her votes. I would not rule out a demobilization caused by the imminent prospect of a government dominated by the PSD.
So, realistically, Mrs. Lasconi could only count on the absenteeism of the PSD electorate.
What about the uncovered nonsense of Călin Georgescu and the threat from Russia?
Support for him is not entirely rational. It contains mysticism, conspiracy theories, anger, frustration, despair, states that contradict reason and lucidity.
There are probably many, I am among them, who, after November 24, discovered shocking supporters of Călin Georgescu in their circle, realized they are impervious to reason, and that any discussion about the nonsense he utters is blocked with the argument of manipulations by the hostile mainstream press.
Like it or not, Mr. Georgescu is representative of the beliefs and mentalities of a large part of Romanians.
The wave of fear of extremism has already been raised in the first round, which explains Mrs. Lasconi's score well above the party, I don't know if she still has significant growth potential.
And, we must be honest, in this situation, Mrs. Lasconi's performance does not help either. She played the messianic savior card, but without psychiatric connotations and facing another danger. Mr. Georgescu promises us salvation, with slogans, from the sinful decadence of the West, and Mrs. Lasconi, also with slogans, from Russia.
Neither has addressed those who do not want to be saved, but only led towards development by a leader with vision. Mrs. Lasconi still has a little time.