„Under my leadership, PNL will not form a government with PSD.” The promise made by Nicolae Ciucă, with great spectacle, is worth nothing. Currently, under Mr. Ciucă’s leadership, PNL is in government with PSD in a coalition that harmoniously divides money and sinecures. After the elections, for Mr. Ciucă, there are basically two options.
Either he wins the presidential elections and will no longer officially lead PNL, so the promise will no longer be binding. Or he loses them, in which case he will lose the leadership of PNL and, again, the promise will no longer be binding.
But even if he somehow remains president of PNL, I find it hard to believe that the imperative of stability will not once again override any commitment because, you see, the country must be governed. And the political calculus is not very generous regarding a serious alternative, beyond simplistic arithmetic, to the PSD-PNL coalition.
Such a so-called right-wing coalition, actually anti-PSD, who could it be composed of?
First of all, PNL and USR. Currently in polls, PNL has at most 20%, in local elections it reached a maximum of 26%. Let's say it reaches that score again, along with the bonus of a potential qualification of Nicolae Ciucă in the final. USR, as Ms. Lasconi says on G4media, could target around 15%, which is almost a doubling of the score from June.
This means, together, 40%. For a stable government, able to undertake bold reforms, not just to put out fires, another 15% would be needed. From where? Will UDMR bring 5-6%? And the rest? Maybe some small parties that will somehow reach the threshold, perhaps some deserters. But these are makeshift solutions.
That is if the reality is not as shown in the most recent INSCOP poll, which places PNL and USR at around 13% each, and the united right, let's call it that, at 30%, but with FD, PMP, and REPER without much chance of passing the threshold.
So, based on the electoral landscape, even in the most optimistic scenario for PNL and USR, the probability of the liberals forming a majority without PSD is very low, more theoretical.
Will PNL be willing to refuse to rebuild the coalition with PSD to push for early elections for the first time in the last 30 years? Would the liberals be willing to give up power? Their goal, on the contrary, is more power.
Of course, Kelemen Hunor is right when he says that leaving AUR as the main opposition, possibly more substantial than in the current parliamentary configuration, in a massive PNL-PSD coalition risks losing the elections in four years. Especially since the years ahead do not promise to be easy at all. But I do not suspect the two parties of having a vision that extends beyond a few months, the next positions to be distributed, and the next budget to be squandered.
And the interest is not only that of PNL, but also of PSD. The social democrats do not have another coalition option for the future government. An alliance, currently underground, between PSD and AUR is intensively rumored. It is highly unlikely, as it would isolate PSD internationally.
It is true that George Simion has made some moves, including affiliating with the conservative group in the EP, to somewhat cleanse the image of an extremist party. However, this is still insufficient for PSD to risk a political disaster. Furthermore, a coalition with a party like AUR, populist, hysterical, disorganized, can only lead to guaranteed failure.
This obvious common interest makes me extremely suspicious regarding the "Simion in the final" scandal. It is a spectacular revival of the extremist danger theme, under which the elections of June 9 were held, with the merger and joint list of PSD-PNL.
It is a theme that helps Nicolae Ciucă appear as a saving solution for the final, where power will be divided equally between the two benefiting parties, in the parliamentary elections, with the bonus of the second round.
In all the current electoral turmoil, in all the reciprocal attacks, I see nothing but an effort by PNL and PSD to mobilize their electorates and create the conditions for a better future government, but also the ambition of PNL to be a stronger partner with corresponding demands.