The Kremlin could exploit its military ties with Transnistria to invade and occupy the entire Republic of Moldova if Russia wins the war in Ukraine, according to an analysis published by the Institute for the Study of War, a military think tank based in Washington.
The threat of a Russian invasion in the Republic of Moldova is very low as long as Ukraine resists Moscow’s troops.
In these circumstances, the Kremlin continues to fuel the hybrid war against Chisinau, attempting, among other things, to influence political elections in Moldova, block its pro-Western orientation, provoke instability, and seek to keep it dependent on Russia's energy resources, thus preparing the ground for a potential military campaign in Moldova, as shown in a comprehensive analysis carried out by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
The Fate of Moldova and Beyond Depends on Ukraine's Resistance
Currently, Russian troops are far from Moldova's territory. Russian forces currently occupy the eastern bank (the left bank) of the Dniester River in southwestern Ukraine, and the Russian military command would need to redistribute a large number of forces from other significant operational sectors of the front to cross the river and make progress westward to capture the city of Odesa, the third-largest city in Ukraine, as indicated by the American organization.
It is highly unlikely that Russian troops will make such an effort in southwestern Ukraine while Russia focuses on occupying the remaining eastern regions of Donetsk and Luhansk.
The formation of the Northern Forces Group and the Russian offensive towards the city of Kharkiv in May also demonstrated Moscow's current inability to deploy a new force capable of conquering the major Ukrainian cities.
If the Russian military leadership wishes to maintain its current priorities on the eastern front of Ukraine while simultaneously opening a new offensive effort towards the west, towards the city of Odesa, Russia would likely need to resort to another partial mobilization, as it did in September 2022, which ISW considers very unlikely at this time.
Moreover, Russia cannot invade Moldova from the sea at this time. Ukrainian naval and aerial drones have inflicted significant damage on the landing ships of the Black Sea Fleet, which would be necessary for an amphibious assault.
The Ukrainian strikes in the Black Sea have driven the Russian fleet from the northwest of the Black Sea and forced it to move its ships from Sevastopol (Crimea) to Novorossiysk in the Krasnodar Krai region.
At the same time, Russian marine infantry units have suffered heavy losses and have repeatedly lost their combat capability during the war, which has likely greatly diminished their status as "elite" units trained for amphibious landings.
Therefore, Russia is currently entangled in a very demanding war of attrition in Ukraine, and Kyiv continues to resist and keep Moscow's army at a distance from the Republic of Moldova. However, Russia's ability to militarily threaten Moldova may change in the future, depending on the situation's evolution on the Ukrainian front, notes ISW.
If Russia significantly increases its recruitment efforts for forces and military equipment, it would be capable of launching a large-scale offensive in southwestern Ukraine towards Moldova, while continuing to fight in eastern Ukraine.
On the other hand, the Russian military command could redirect its focus towards southwestern Ukraine if Russian forces achieve substantial conquests in eastern Ukraine, estimate American military analysts.
Russia May Use Transnistria, NATO Takes Measures in Romania
The Kremlin could exploit its military ties with Transnistria, where it has maintained about 1,500 soldiers, to invade and occupy all of Moldova.
ISW notes that Moscow could take advantage of a possible ceasefire in Ukraine to establish communication lines with Transnistria by resuming flights from Russia over Ukrainian airspace, thereby allowing Russia to strengthen its forces and capabilities in Transnistria for future military operations against Moldova.
A ceasefire in Ukraine resulting in Russia's military occupation of Crimea and partially or entirely of the Kherson region would also increase the possibility for Moscow to rebuild its forces to successfully invade and occupy all of Moldova from Ukraine, by land or by sea, at a later date.
A Russian invasion of Moldova becomes even more likely if Russia were to occupy the Nikolaev and Odesa regions in the future.
The future of Moldova as an independent and sovereign state is directly linked to the outcome of Russia's war in Ukraine and affects NATO's defense planning.
American military analysts also mention that currently, NATO is expanding the military base at Mihail Kogălniceanu, demonstrating the importance that the Alliance places on this region in its defense against Russia. ISW previously estimated that if Russia were to occupy all of Ukraine, NATO is not prepared to defend against Russian forces stationed directly at the borders of Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, and Romania.
Russia's occupation of Moldova would further increase these already pressing defense requirements, forcing NATO to defend the 680-kilometer border of Romania with Russia-occupied Moldova.
ISW indicates that Western assistance to both Ukraine and Moldova is essential for these countries to resist Russia's influence and aggression and to prevent Russian forces from threatening NATO.
Moldova in 2024 is similar to Ukraine between 2014 and February 2022, and the Kremlin has adopted elements from its hybrid warfare manual in both states as part of its long-standing efforts to reshape the governance and geostrategic orientations of Ukraine and Moldova.
The full independence and territorial integrity of Moldova and Ukraine would allow NATO to focus on its northeastern border with Russia and Belarus and keep Russian forces further away from NATO's base in Romania, emphasizes the American organization.
T.D.