This electoral year has the sole merit of not being conducive to pre-prepared populisms. In other words, the home calculations don’t quite match those in the market.
The most recent example is the lifting of visas for the USA. Marcel Ciolacu prepared the moment in advance. When he recorded the interview with Mihai Gâdea, later broadcast in several parts, he probably made sure that the segment announcing the lifting of visas would be broadcasted on the day of the end of the fiscal year in the USA, which is the date by which the famous visa rejection rate is calculated.
And since the rejection rate is apparently below 3%, a percentage above which entry into the Visa Waiver is not an option, Marcel Ciolacu even announced the date of lifting the visas - January 2025. And he pinned the resolution of the issue on his electoral board: "we approached it professionally, I have an advisor in this area, we changed legislation."
The next morning, the liberal side also came out to take back its piece of the pie, through Ambassador Andrei Muraru, a bit more cautious, admittedly, in estimating the date - not exactly January, but the first part of next year.
Of course, it's not quite Schengen, which every Romanian working in the EU or vacationing in Greece and Bulgaria longs for, but it's not unimportant either. Plus, it's a matter of prestige and pride: behold, if Nehammer doesn't want us, the Americans will.
However, the Americans do not want to be part of the electoral game in Bucharest. The US Ambassador quickly came out and poured a bucket of cold water on the excitement stirred up by Romanian officials: "There are still a number of important steps to be taken in the coming months to determine if Romania is actually eligible to participate in the Visa Waiver program."
Additional consultations will take place between the two governments this fall, "to review Romania's compliance with a number of security measures previously agreed upon. In the event of a favorable decision by the US Government to include Romania in the Visa Waiver program, we anticipate there will be a period of careful preparation and public information before any changes to the current visa requirements are implemented," says Mrs. Katheleen Kavalec.
The actual lifting of visas? "Sometime in 2025." So, most likely, no one will be able to parade this success as a done deal in this campaign.
And pension law was designed as a big blow for the elections, especially if the presidential elections were, according to the initial plan, in September. And indeed, it is a fundamentally correct law that prioritizes contribution both in terms of amount and consistency.
However, the party was spoiled by the injustice done to those in hard-working groups and people with disabilities, plus the very high number of various stumbles.
So, about the increases, and there were quite a few, some even very substantial, no one talked about them anymore, and an anticipated electoral bonus turned into an electoral liability that the ruling parties tried to pass from one to another.
Populist was also the exaggeration of prevention for the non-existent cyclone - Ashley. The government had to make a show of strength to erase the memory of the failure in Galați, where people were warned about the storm only when they were neck-deep in water.
And for this, a cyclone was invented, and hysteria was created even where nothing more happened than the arrival of autumn.
As for President Iohannis's plans, what more can we say? Everything has fallen apart so far; not only has he not landed any external office, but even with a lousy senatorial mandate on his estate, he has great difficulties. It remains only for him not to receive the villa in Aviatorilor so that he has reasons to flip the whole cabinet, not just with a coat, on the hood.
Marcel Ciolacu's plan to get rid of the risky candidacy didn't work out, it remains to be seen if the Liberals will succeed in making Nicolae Ciucă a finalist just by mobilizing the party machinery.
I don't know if it's just famous bad luck or if the plans were on par with the political personalities of the moment and actually stood no chance. And, certainly, a part of the electorate is much harder to deceive.