The results after the first round of the parliamentary elections in France on Sunday showed that the far-right Rassemblement National (RN) party won, as expected, but the final outcome will depend on the strategy that competitors will choose before the second round on July 7.
Most likely, RN will win, but the question is whether it will achieve an absolute majority.
What happens if RN obtains an absolute majority? Will the leader of this party, Jordan Bardella, become the prime minister? Can political paralysis be avoided after the elections? These are the current questions that Reuters is trying to answer.
The short answer to these questions is: no one knows for sure.
Article 8 of the Constitution states that the president appoints the prime minister, but it does not specify the criteria to be used.
In practice, President Emmanuel Macron should offer the position to the main parliamentary group, and the first round of voting suggests that it will likely be the eurosceptic and anti-immigration group RN.
Will Jordan Bardella, the leader of RN, become the prime minister?
RN has stated that its party leader, Jordan Bardella, is its candidate for the prime minister position, but he has stated that he will refuse the position if he and his allies do not achieve an absolute majority of at least 289 seats.
Since the Constitution does not specify how the prime minister should be chosen, Macron could theoretically try to gather an anti-RN alliance and offer the position to another party or individual not politically affiliated.
If not Bardella, then who?
The Constitution does not provide a specific answer, notes the agency cited by News.ro.
Options could include:
- attempting to form an alliance of major parties. Such an alliance does not currently exist, but Macron has urged parties to unite to keep the far right at bay.
- offering the position to the left, if the alliance including the far left, the Socialist Party, and the Greens is likely to be the second largest group, the left could try to form a minority government together with Macron's centrist party and its allies.
Would these options work?
If RN wins the majority of votes and accepts the prime minister position, a period of "cohabitation" with Macron would begin. This has occurred three times before in modern French political history, but with mainstream parties. RN may face difficulties in implementing its ideas for change.
If RN is the largest party in Parliament but not in power, it could block or modify government proposals. The Constitution provides the Government with some tools to overcome this situation, but with certain limits.
If RN obtains a majority, it would largely secure the prime minister position, as it could force any government it disagrees with to resign.
What happens if no agreement is reached?
It is possible that none of the three groups - the far right, centrists, and the left - will be large enough to govern alone, reach a coalition agreement, or ensure they can lead a viable minority government.
In such a case, France could face political paralysis, with limited or nonexistent legislation and an interim government to manage basic daily affairs.
Could Macron resign?
Macron has ruled out this option, but it could become a choice if everything is blocked. Neither Parliament nor the Government could force him to do so.
What will not happen in any scenario
The Constitution states that new parliamentary elections cannot take place for another year, so an immediate repeat vote is not an option.
Final results of the first round: RN in first place, record turnout
The exit poll results for the first round of the anticipated legislative elections in France were confirmed by the official final figures announced on Monday by the Ministry of the Interior.
Rassemblement National (RN), a far-right party, came in first place, surpassing the left-wing alliance, Nouveau Front Populaire, and President Emmanuel Macron's centrist party, as reported by Le Figaro, cited by News.ro.
Thus, Rassemblement National and its ally Eric Ciotti from Les Républicains, the traditional right-wing party currently plagued by internal struggles, received 33.15% of the votes cast, which is over 10 million votes. A total of 39 deputies supported by the extremist party were elected in the first round, including Marine Le Pen.
The Nouveau Front Populaire (NFP), resulting from the union of the left with the far left, received 27.99% of the votes, nearly 9 million votes. 32 deputies supported by NFP were elected in the first round, including Olivier Faure, the first secretary of the Socialist Party, Emmanuel Grégoire, a close associate of the Mayor of Paris, Anne Hidalgo, and Sophia Chikirou, the partner of Jean-Luc Mélenchon, the leader of the far left.
The presidential party, Ensemble, and its ally, Horizons, only received 20.04% of the votes, nearly 7 million votes. Only two deputies were elected in the first round: Pierre Cazeneuve in Hauts-de-Seine and Mikaele Seo in Wallis and Futuna.
The voter turnout was 66.71% of registered voters, 20% higher than the previous elections in 2022. This is an unprecedented level since a similar dissolution of the Assembly in 1997 by then-President Jacques Chirac. This level of participation is close to the figures recorded in the 1980s, between 65 and 70% - except for 1986 when the election was held under a proportional representation system with only one round.
A second round of voting is scheduled for next Sunday, July 7.
This week will be marked especially by negotiations regarding whether to maintain a candidate against Nouveau Front Populaire or Rassemblement National in the 306 cases of runoff elections, involving three candidates.
There are also a few cases where four candidates will enter the second round, something not seen for 50 years, as reported by the French press.
To qualify for the second round, candidates must rank among the top two or have the votes of at least 12.5% of registered voters. The higher the voter turnout, the greater the number of qualified candidates.
Candidates who decide to withdraw - which would favor one of the other competitors - must announce this by Tuesday at 6:00 p.m.