Romania is a serious military power, which is why the risk of a pro-Russian and NATO-skeptical candidate, Călin Georgescu, becoming president next Sunday is causing confusion within the alliance.
The country with 19 million inhabitants has been a NATO member for two decades and hosts an expanding airbase set to become the largest in Europe for the military bloc, POLITICO writes on Wednesday.
Romania borders Ukraine, overlooks Crimea occupied by Russia from the Black Sea, has sent weapons and ammunition to Kiev, and hosts an American missile defense system Aegis Ashore in Deveselu, in the south of the country, where both Romanian and American forces are based.
But these international ties are not to Georgescu's liking, who has condemned the missiles at Deveselu as a "national shame," advocated for the cessation of Romanian aid to Ukraine, and pleaded for "Russian wisdom" in shaping foreign policy, according to POLITICO. At the same time, the publication adds, Georgescu insists he does not want to withdraw from the alliance.
"I don't want to leave NATO, I don't want to leave the European Union," Georgescu declared last week. "What I want, however, is to take a stand, not to kneel, not to accept everything. As I said, we must do everything in our national interest," said the winner of the first round of the presidential elections.
Major Issues for the Alliance
Even if Georgescu were inclined to withdraw from NATO, this would be a difficult goal to achieve, as the far right does not have a majority in the country's Parliament. It could also provoke the anger of Romanians, 88% of whom support membership in the alliance, according to a recent survey cited by POLITICO.
But in the French-style Romanian political system, the president is the head of state, the supreme commander of the armed forces, and responsible for foreign policy. Therefore, the presence of a NATO skeptic at the Cotroceni Palace could create major problems for the alliance. Georgescu could, for example, mimic the playbook of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán and act as a pro-Kremlin "spoiler" within NATO.
Therefore, a dramatic political change in Bucharest could undermine Romania's role as one of the main regional security actors of the military alliance, as shown by POLITICO.
The country is one of the European members that allocates the most of its GDP to defense spending (2.25% in 2024, ranking 9th), has F-16 fighter jets, buys main battle tanks M1 Abrams from America, and plans to open one of the largest NATO air bases. It has also deployed troops in both Iraq and Afghanistan.
Romania Surpasses Its Old Rival Hungary
This growing military power comes against the backdrop of over two decades of rapid economic growth, which has transformed the country from a Balkan ruin into an increasingly prosperous nation, even surpassing its old rival Hungary in terms of GDP per capita.
"Romania's role has evolved significantly in the last 20 years since joining NATO, and the country has taken steps to be a security provider and not just a security consumer," says Anca Agachi, a political analyst at the RAND think tank.
Since Russia's large-scale invasion of Ukraine nearly three years ago, Romania has sent weapons, including a Patriot air defense system, and contributed to channeling international aid to Kiev. It also borders the Black Sea - where the Russians attack civilian ships and lay mines. Russian drones have passed through Romanian airspace on their way to attack Ukraine, and drone fragments have been found on its territory.
"The proximity to Ukraine has positioned Romania as a vital logistical partner," says Antonia Colibăşanu, an analyst at Geopolitical Futures, adding that Romania is also a training center for Ukrainian F-16 pilots.
NATO Deterrence in Romania
NATO leaders agreed in March 2022 to establish four additional multinational combat groups along the alliance's eastern flank, including one led by France in Romania. The unit, stationed at Cincu, will become a 4,000-strong brigade by next year. It includes troops from Belgium, Luxembourg, North Macedonia, Poland, Portugal, and the USA.
In addition to the missile defense at Deveselu, Romania intends to spend $2.7 billion to transform its airbase at Mihail Kogălniceanu into one of NATO's largest facilities. Once modernizations are completed by 2030, Kogălniceanu will host over 10,000 soldiers and civilians, some of whom will be transferred from the US base in Ramstein, Germany.
"This will be a very concrete deterrence tool on the eastern flank," said George Scutaru, CEO of the New Strategy Center think tank and former national security advisor to the President of Romania.
Next spring, Romania will host a large-scale military exercise, called "Dacian Spring 2025," which will test France's ability to deploy a war-ready brigade in Europe within 10 days.
The Need for Modernization
Currently, Bucharest spends 2.25% of GDP on defense, above the alliance's 2% target, and aims to increase military spending to 2.5% next year and 3% by 2026. The goal is to modernize its arsenal and replace old Soviet-era equipment.
"We need five to ten years to bring troops and capabilities to the level necessary to react to and deter any war," says Iulian Chifu, president of the Center for Conflict Prevention and Early Warning in Bucharest and a former international security advisor.
Romania is heavily dependent on other countries for the weapons to modernize its forces.
Bucharest is in the process of acquiring 32 Lockheed Martin F-35 Lightning fighter jets from the United States. It also has Patriot air defense systems and M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS). Last year, Romania purchased two ships from the UK capable of detecting and destroying mines to help secure the Black Sea.
But these efforts "face delays as Europe and the United States struggle with delays in delivering arms" caused by the war in Ukraine and the Covid-19 crisis, says Colibăşanu. This is one of the reasons why Romania is buying weapons from non-NATO countries. It is in the process of acquiring 54 self-propelled howitzers K9 Thunder from Hanwha Aerospace in South Korea for $910 million.
Earlier this year, Hanwha Aerospace executives told POLITICO that Romania could become a weapons production hub for Europe, the Middle East, and Africa. German defense giant Rheinmetall also plans to build a major powder factory in the country.