Today, Friday, marks the expiration of the ultimatum given by the Prime Minister to the Minister of Interior for drafting the government decision for organizing elections with two possible options: September 15 – 29 or September 29 – October 13, both rejected by the liberals, although initially accepted.
Apparently, therefore, the fate of the coalition lies in the pen of Mr. Predoiu, Minister and Vice Prime Minister of the National Liberal Party, caught between the Prime Minister and the party’s interests he represents.
However, Cătălin Predoiu is an atypical political figure, compared to the usual profile of a party-affiliated minister.
The Atypical Predoiu
On one hand, the longest-serving among Romania's ministers, with total ministerial periods not far from 10 years, he has a genuine respect for institutional rules and discipline within the Government.
I believe it will be psychologically very difficult for him to confront the decision and explicit request of a Prime Minister, regardless of who it is, and to become what Stelian Ion was in relation to Prime Minister Cîțu. A comparison that I have no doubt irritates him.
I am convinced that he would prefer to "skillfully stumble," as he has done in other critical situations, especially during the Boc government, for example, to initiate the government decision, but with the dates desired by the liberals, in November.
However, he knows well that the Prime Minister has the right to make any modifications to an already initiated project without seeking anyone's approval.
Therefore, the only solution to respect the party's decision is not to comply with the Prime Minister's request and not to initiate the government decision requested by him.
On the other hand, Mr. Predoiu's relationship with the National Liberal Party is not brilliant. If it were up to the party, he would not have been supported even at the Ministry of Justice, let alone at the Ministry of Interior, a key ministry for which Lucian Bode is now shedding tears.
Recently, within the party, political sources say he was reproached for his absence from the electoral campaign and his extremely low-profile political stance. The fact that he did everything possible at this moment in the Schengen dossier, including fixing Mr. Bode's blunders, does not matter much to the liberal barons.
Therefore, it is expected that Mr. Predoiu will act exactly as President Iohannis desires, who, however, has not expressed an opinion on the election date. He only noted that the presidential elections could be held in September, October, or November, not December, and that the people, not the parties, elect the president.
But does PNL, especially General Ciucă, do what the President wants?
So far, that has been the case. But let's not forget that until the Euro-locals, PNL wanted elections in September, and General Ciucă advocated for this solution and announced the start of the pre-campaign on July 15.
Did Mr. Iohannis change his mind because he is not leaving for NATO anymore? Or has the party finally understood that Mr. Iohannis is at the end of his term, does not matter in terms of external affairs, as they deluded themselves, will not receive any top job, so the liberals would do well to rethink their strategies according to their interests, regardless of Mr. Iohannis's personal interest, which in just a few months will mean nothing?
If there is one thing certain about President Iohannis, it is that he has never, absolutely never acted other than in his personal interest, regardless of the country's and PNL's interests, and the recent embarrassing adventure regarding the NATO leadership was a clear proof of that.
What else can the President desire, what else can he gain for himself from Marcel Ciolacu in exchange for the government decision with elections in September, what impact does the loss of all top foreign job opportunities have on his plans, to what extent does he blame Ciolacu's lack of support for this outcome, therein lies probably the key to this political moment.
Ciolacu, mistake or calculation?
Normally, Prime Minister Ciolacu, politically cautious by nature, would not have ventured to give an ultimatum to the presidential Interior Minister without having a minimum guarantee that he will not be left holding the ultimatum. He knows he cannot dismiss Mr. Predoiu, he knows he cannot break the coalition without immense political costs, both internally and externally.
Of course, having elections in winter would mean not running, according to his own statement, thus avoiding trouble, but he knows that a Prime Minister who swallows such a defiance from a minister and from the governing partners is stabbing his own authority.
He has taken an unusual step, in a "who blinks first" moment, or simply made a major miscalculation that will have political consequences at least in the power equation within the PSD?