The Luca Niculescu Government will pass through Parliament. PNL and UDMR will vote in favor, offering punctual support to the new executive, but afterwards, the landscape becomes disturbed, unclear, like a video image disrupted by a weak internet connection.
At the end of the day, both Nicușor Dan and Sorin Grindeanu will be two happy leaders. Both have achieved their goal of getting rid of Ilie Bolojan from leading the government, and both have joined forces to control and influence a new executive under the command of a politically colorless and authority-less prime minister.
But problems for the two will start on Wednesday when they realize that instead of consolidating their positions in the eyes of the public opinion, they will be even more vulnerable to people's dissatisfaction and a fragmented Parliament.
Both Sorin Grindeanu and the PSD have taken the step to return to power with one goal - avoiding facing the electorate. With 15% public support, snap elections would be a disaster for the social democrats.
And, as usual, they have prepared a plan. According to political sources, appointing Marian Neacșu as Minister of the Interior represents the strategic move through which the social democrats aim to create a majority in Parliament to ensure their survival in power until 2028.
Neacșu's mission, a convicted felon for influence peddling, a jolly-joker of the PSD, used for recruiting parliamentarians and hidden agreements, will be to bring at least another 105 alongside the party's 128 senators and deputies so that the social democrats remain in power until the fall of 2028.
For this, Marian Neacșu has been given a powerful ministry, which oversees an intelligence service, DGPI (General Directorate for Internal Protection), which has been previously used by the PSD as a bargaining chip in their relationship with political adversaries and partners.
All on One Card
On June 16, Marian Neacșu and Adrian Veștea negotiated with AUR for support in Parliament for the latest prime minister designated by Nicușor Dan.
AUR refused to vote, and the liberal coupist failed to obtain the parliamentary support needed to form a new USL government.
The exact course of action taken by the PSD "negotiator" in those days will now be used, but from the position of Minister of the Interior, with access to sensitive information, aiming to exert pressure on parliamentarians.
The PSD is betting everything on this government. If they fail to remain in power until 2028, when they hope the political landscape will be more favorable than it is now, to be able to take measures to regain some of the electorate, then the chances of becoming a marginal party increase significantly.
And this plan devised by the PSD in the "reflection group" laboratory, as Liviu Dragnea called it, in reality, a meeting of a small number of influential leaders in the party, does not pay much attention to what is actually happening around them, representing more a desire for salvation than a well-thought-out political strategy based on studies, focus groups, and tests. That is why it will be very difficult for them to succeed.
Time Bomb
Marian Neacșu is the second in the party after Sorin Grindeanu in terms of unpopularity.
And this is only because the PSD negotiator, who dreams of being Hrebenciuc's successor, is less known as a party leader.
But soon, especially because he is a former convicted felon placed at the helm of the police, those called to protect citizens, he will become a catastrophic image for the PSD, much larger than Grindeanu.
The Neacșu effect is not just a time bomb for the social democrats, but will rapidly compromise the entire executive, nullifying all the good intentions of Luca Niculescu, a technocrat considered until now a good negotiator.
Once again, the PSD's plan only considers immediate, cynical, and greedy party interests, hoping once again to deceive voters, buy time, and find a new saving alliance to continue their journey.
Nicușor Dan will also be a collateral victim of Marian Neacșu. It is very likely that the President of Romania will pay for the failures and corruption suspicions that will plague the new executive.
Ilie Bolojan, Dominic Fritz, and Kelemen Hunor have the chance to upset the PSD's calculations if they find common ground for negotiation and manage to present the people with a realistic program of reform, improved quality of life, and reduced corruption.
In the Controversies podcast, episode 5, which can be watched on the SpotMedia YouTube channel, alongside journalists Matei Udrea and Liliana Ruse, Digi 24, we discussed the "PSDan coalition" and how long it may last.